作者提出三步方案：第一，减少焦煤使用；第二，提高矿井甲烷抽采效率；第三，把这些气体用于减少对进口LNG的依赖。但第一个方向正在倒退。尽管钢铁行业长期设定到15%的较清洁电炉炼钢目标，政府数据却显示钢厂更加依赖煤炭高炉；一个代理指标——生铁产量占粗钢产量比重——已连续6年上升，去年达到自2013年以来最高。
第二个方向改善有限，第三个方向则显示问题规模巨大。中国煤矿每年排放约600亿立方米甲烷，接近全球LNG贸易量的巨大尺度：按常态，中国这一最大进口国与Qatar这一最大出口国的年规模都约为1050亿立方米。其气候影响相当于每年超过10亿吨二氧化碳当量，超过中国全部汽车或整个Japan。Shanxi煤层气产量在2020年至2025年间约增加70亿立方米，但北京是否靠减排政策推动这一增长仍不明朗。
China’s deadliest mine blast in decades killed at least 82 people and was the worst since 2009, underscoring how deep, gassy coal seams still create severe risks. The article notes that shallow open-pit mines are safer, while Liushenyu was a high-risk coking-coal mine operating about 300 meters underground, where pressure, ventilation, and rescue constraints all magnify the chance of explosions and collapses.
The suggested fix has three parts: use less coking coal, improve methane capture, and use that gas to cut reliance on imported LNG. But the first step is going the wrong way. Even though China has long targeted a modest 15% share of steel output from cleaner electric furnaces, government data show mills becoming more dependent on coal-fired blast furnaces; pig iron as a share of crude steel has risen for six straight years, reaching its highest level since 2013 last year.
The methane numbers are striking: China’s coal mines emit about 60 billion cubic meters a year, a scale comparable to the global LNG trade, where China and Qatar each account for roughly 105 bcm in normal times. In climate terms, that fugitive methane equals more than 1 billion metric tons of carbon-equivalent emissions annually, exceeding the emissions from all Chinese cars or the entire nation of Japan. Shanxi coal-bed gas output rose by about 7 bcm from 2020 to 2025, but it is unclear whether that reflects emissions control or simply more fossil-fuel demand.