支撑升息的数据焦点之一是薪资：连合（Rengo）目标争取整体加薪超过5%，UA Zensen 计划为正式员工要求总薪资增加6%。同时，日圆自10月中旬以来兑美元下跌4%，目前仍在约155附近；长天期日债殖利率走高，10年期接近2%，为近20年来首见。与此同时，美联储今年第三次降息，每次25个基点，最新把政策利率区间降至3.50%—3.75%，并预测2026年仅再降息一次。
利差与资金流向仍将左右日圆，但政策路径也受外部冲击牵制：Nikkei 旗下 QUICK 对29名观察者调查显示，若12月升息，许多人预期下一次加息在2026年7月。另一个风险是中日紧张升级与旅游下滑。野村综研的木内孝英估算，若中国旅客一年缩手，日本名目GDP将减少1.79兆日圆（约110亿美元），并使名目与实质GDP各下降0.29%；若再叠加稀土出口限制，损失可能扩大。
Market expectations for a BOJ hike in December have jumped over the past two weeks. Totan Research/Totan ICAP data put the implied probability at 92% as of Friday, up from about 60% at the end of November. After a January hike and a pause tied to uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, policymakers have turned more suggestive, and brokers such as Nomura have pulled hike forecasts forward from January to December. UBS expects the uncollateralized overnight call rate to rise from 0.5% to 0.75% at the Dec. 18–19 meeting.
Wage momentum is a key input: Rengo is aiming for an overall pay rise of more than 5%, and UA Zensen plans to seek a 6% increase in total wages for regular employees. The yen has weakened 4% against the dollar since mid-October and still trades around 155, while 10-year JGB yields are nearing 2% for the first time in almost 20 years. In the U.S., the Fed has cut rates three times this year by 25 bp, most recently to 3.50%–3.75%, and now signals only one cut in 2026.
Forward guidance will shape whether markets expect follow-through: a QUICK survey of 29 BOJ watchers suggests many see the next hike after December coming in July 2026. Risks are also geopolitical and real-economy linked. Nomura Research Institute’s Takahide Kiuchi estimates that if Chinese travelers hold back for a year, Japan’s nominal GDP would fall by 1.79 trillion yen (about $11 billion) and both nominal and real GDP would drop 0.29%. Potential rare-earth export restrictions would raise the downside further.
