活动数据显示的是混合式回升，而非全面复苏。2025 年全球交易金额同比上升 44% 至 $904 billion，受 Electronic Arts 的 $56.6 billion 私有化等大型交易带动，但交易总数仍下降 6% 至 3,018，对吸收过剩 dry powder 帮助有限。Bain 的 Rebecca Burack 表示，早期动能后来被与 President Donald Trump「Liberation Day」关税相关的不确定性打断；募资再降 16% 至 $395 billion，连续第 4 年下滑，即便资金正转向基础设施与 secondaries。
回报计算明显收紧：投资者越来越要求高于 20% 的净 IRR，而管理人现在需要更强的交易前价值创造计划，因为旧假设已不再适用。Burack 的基准已从年化约 5% 的 EBITDA 成长，改为约 12%/年、持续 5 years，才能达成相近结果，并总结为「12 is the new 5.」随著公司已出售许多顶级资产，投组品质正在分化；全球持有量仍接近 32,000 家公司，平均持有期也由 2021 年的 5 to 6 years 拉长至约 7 years，资产老化因此对 IRR 形成压力，但 Bain 仍认为私募股权在策略上对分散配置有用，只是暂时「stuck」。
Bain & Co. reports that private equity is in a prolonged payout and liquidity slump that is now more persistent than the post-2008 period: distributions stayed at 14% of net asset value in 2025, the second-lowest level since the financial crisis, while firms are still sitting on about $3.8 trillion of unsold assets. The freeze follows a sharp cycle shift from the 2021 stimulus-era boom to a higher-rate environment after 2022, which reduced exits and cash returned to limited partners and then weakened new fundraising.
Activity data show a mixed rebound rather than a full recovery. Global deal value rose 44% year over year to $904 billion in 2025, helped by large transactions such as the $56.6 billion take-private of Electronic Arts, but total deal count still fell 6% to 3,018 and did little to absorb excess dry powder. Bain’s Rebecca Burack said early momentum was later interrupted by uncertainty tied to President Donald Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs, and fundraising dropped another 16% to $395 billion, marking a fourth consecutive annual decline even as capital shifted toward infrastructure and secondaries.
Return math has tightened materially: investors increasingly demand net IRRs above 20%, and managers now need stronger pre-deal value-creation plans because old assumptions no longer work. Burack’s benchmark changed from about 5% annual EBITDA growth to roughly 12% per year for 5 years to achieve similar outcomes, summarized as "12 is the new 5." Portfolio quality is bifurcating as firms have already sold many top assets, global holdings remain near 32,000 companies, and average hold periods have stretched to around 7 years from 5 to 6 years in 2021, which pressures IRRs as assets age, though Bain still frames private equity as strategically useful for diversification despite being temporarily "stuck."