赤字是由支出成长明显超过收入成长所推动：国家支出年增25.7%至227.3兆印尼盾，而收入增加9.5%至172.7兆印尼盾。彭博汇编的财政部数据显示，这是至少自2019年以来1月最高的支出水准。各部会与机构支出增加129%，其中包括总统普拉博沃・苏比安托的免费餐食计划及其他社会支持的预算拨款增加逾一倍；同时，资本支出为灌溉、连通性与粮食安全专案增加近7倍；该部计划在第1季支出809兆印尼盾。
该政策目标是加快成长，此前一季国内生产毛额扩张 5.39%，且官方第一季目标为 5.5% 至 6%。其限制在于财政可信度：尽管支出前置，当局仍承诺将全年赤字维持在低于占国内生产毛额 3% 的法定上限。由於穆迪基于财政风险疑虑将印尼评等展望下调为负向，且惠誉本周正进行实地政策会议，市场敏感度已升高；同时，在简报期间，受与美国新关税威胁相关的美元走弱情绪带动，国内资产仍维持涨幅。
Indonesia recorded a January 2026 fiscal deficit of 54.6 trillion rupiah (about $3.25 billion), equal to 0.21% of GDP, after the government deliberately accelerated spending to support early-year growth. This is unusual because post-pandemic January outcomes were typically surpluses, when tax collection is seasonally strong and project disbursement is still limited. The report was released on February 23, 2026 at 2:52 PM GMT+8, and Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the budget is intended to sustain growth momentum in Q1.
The deficit was driven by spending growth that sharply exceeded revenue growth: state expenditure rose 25.7% year on year to 227.3 trillion rupiah, while revenue increased 9.5% to 172.7 trillion rupiah. Bloomberg-compiled finance ministry data indicate this was the highest January spending level since at least 2019. Ministries and agencies increased spending by 129%, including more than doubling allocations for President Prabowo Subianto’s free meals program and other social support, while capital expenditure rose nearly 7 times for irrigation, connectivity, and food security projects; the ministry plans 809 trillion rupiah in spending in Q1.
The policy aim is faster growth, after GDP expanded 5.39% in the previous quarter and with an official Q1 target of 5.5% to 6%. The constraint is fiscal credibility: authorities still commit to keeping the full-year deficit below the legal ceiling of 3% of GDP despite front-loaded outlays. Market sensitivity is elevated after Moody’s revised Indonesia’s rating outlook to negative on fiscal-risk concerns, and Fitch is conducting on-the-ground policy meetings this week; meanwhile, domestic assets held gains during the briefing, helped by weaker US dollar sentiment linked to new US tariff threats.