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OpenAI 自 2022 年推出 ChatGPT 后迅速走红,但仍是私营公司,且采「封顶盈利」等复杂架构,让多数散户无法直接买到股权。尽管市场与媒体曾提到其可能以约 1 兆美元估值筹备 IPO(截至 2025 年 12 月 22 日仍属「尚未上市」状态),想提前取得「同名」曝险的人只能走间接与不完美路径。

最直接的灰色路径是二级市场 SPV(特殊目的载体)集资买入私募股权,但费用侵蚀严重:常见抽走约 20% 的利润,极端情况可达 40%,且投资人往往不真正持有底层股份。另一条是靠人脉做私下转让:合格投资人可透过既有股东撮合,或使用 EquityZen(已被摩根士丹利收购)与 Nasdaq Private Market 等平台,但成交稀少且常需要公司批准。

更「可买到」的作法是投资代理受益者:微软在 2024 年重组中取得 27% 权益,推算其份额约值 1350 亿美元,并被报导可分得约 20% 的 OpenAI 收入,且相关权利延伸至 2032 年;英伟达则同意最多投资 1000 亿美元支持资料中心扩张;AMD 亦供应「数百亿美元」等级的处理器,且 OpenAI 预计成为其最大股东之一。也可用 ETF 间接押注:IYW 规模约 200 亿美元且超过一半权重集中于英伟达、微软等巨头;AIQ 约 70 亿美元;ARKVX 对 OpenAI 配置超过 5%。再更外围则是「卖铲子」的资料中心(多为 REIT)、晶片物流与电力/电价衍生品等高波动曝险。

OpenAI surged from obscurity after launching ChatGPT in 2022, but it remains privately held and structurally complex (a capped-profit setup), so most retail investors cannot buy shares directly. Even with talk of a potential IPO at roughly a $1 trillion valuation, access before any listing is indirect and imperfect (as of Dec. 22, 2025).

The closest “direct” route is the secondary market via SPVs that pool money to buy private stakes, but fees can severely dilute returns: they may take about 20% of profits and, in some cases, as much as 40%, while investors often don’t own the underlying shares. Another path is negotiated private sales for accredited investors, sometimes facilitated by platforms such as EquityZen (acquired by Morgan Stanley) and Nasdaq Private Market, though trades can be rare and may require company approval.

Proxy exposure is simpler: Microsoft reportedly took a 27% stake in a 2024 restructuring, valuing its share near $135 billion, and is entitled to roughly 20% of OpenAI revenue, with access rights running to 2032; Nvidia agreed to invest up to $100 billion to fund data-center expansion; AMD is supplying tens of billions of dollars of processors and OpenAI is expected to become one of its largest shareholders. ETFs add broader, second-order exposure: the $20B IYW has over half its weight in megacap tech; the $7B AIQ is more targeted; ARKVX holds over 5% in OpenAI. “Picks-and-shovels” bets include data centers (often REIT-like returns) and even power-related derivatives.

2025-12-23 (Tuesday) · c10e86779ef590bd4302fae72af2545f5d056d8e