中国 AI 晶片 IPO 热潮在年末升温，首日涨幅呈现「加密式」走势：MetaX 上市首日暴涨 693%，Moore Threads 亦在本月出现类似爆发；两者仍处亏损，但与 Biren、Enflame 一起被称为 GPU「四小龙」，其中后两者正准备赴港上市。

需求端同样极端：监管收紧 IPO、供给偏少且定向「战略产业」，加上估值基期较低，推升散户追新热。MetaX 散户配售超额认购接近 3,000 倍，Moore Threads 也相差不远，形成以政策预期与稀缺性驱动的定价。

市占预测强化了「国产替代」想像：Bernstein 指 2025 年中国 AI 加速器市场中，Nvidia 与华为各占 39%；但 Nvidia 份额被预估在 2026 年降至 8%。市场同时警惕基本面追不上股价：能否在未来 12–24 个月把政策动能转为可持续毛利与量产/性能竞争力，将决定这波狂热是否重演过剩与价格战。

China’s AI-chip IPO boom has turned euphoric into year-end, with debut gains resembling crypto charts: MetaX surged 693% on its first day, echoing earlier explosive moves in Moore Threads. Both GPU-focused AI chip designers are still loss-making, yet they sit among the so-called “Four Little Dragons,” alongside Biren and Enflame, which are preparing Hong Kong listings.

Scarcity and policy signaling amplify demand. With regulators tightly controlling IPO supply and steering listings toward strategic sectors—often from a depressed valuation base—retail investors chase new issues aggressively. MetaX’s retail tranche was almost 3,000x oversubscribed, and Moore Threads saw similarly intense demand, pulling prices forward faster than fundamentals can follow.

Market-share projections fuel the national-champion narrative: Bernstein estimates Nvidia and Huawei each held 39% of China’s AI accelerator market in 2025, but Nvidia is projected to drop to 8% in 2026 as domestic players gain ground. The key risk is execution: triple-digit debuts price in success well before scale, performance, and profits, and sustainability hinges on results over the next 12–24 months.