跨资产走势反映美元走弱、实物资产走强，以及利率仅小幅承压。彭博美元即期指数下跌0.4%，欧元上涨0.4%至1.1757美元，英镑上涨0.6%至1.3457美元，日圆走强0.5%至每美元157。美债殖利率小升（10年期+2个基点至4.16%；2年期+2个基点至3.50%），而市场押注2026年联准会将降息两次。
季节性与估值统计塑造了对2026年风险的讨论。所谓「圣诞老人行情」窗口（12月最后五个交易日加上1月前两个交易日）自1928年以来约有80%的时间为正，平均+1.6%，但近年规律较不可靠。策略师对标普500的目标值集中在7,000–8,100（16%的跨度），并伴随对约14%盈余成长的预期；同时本益比水准高于1960年以来94%的观测值，而消费者信心处于第1百分位。商品走强（WTI +2.5%至57.94美元；黄金+2.4%至4,442.78美元），加密货币大致持平（比特币88,346.39美元；以太币2,984.57美元）。
A broad risk-on session lifted US equities as a holiday-shortened week began. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to around 6,880, nearing a record, with nearly 400 constituents advancing; it also erased December losses and stayed on track for an eighth straight monthly gain, the longest streak since 2018. The Nasdaq 100 and Dow each gained 0.5%, the MSCI World Index rose 0.6%, and small-caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 up 1.2%.
Cross-asset moves reflected softer dollar, firmer real assets, and only modest rate pressure. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4% as the euro climbed 0.4% to $1.1757, the pound rose 0.6% to $1.3457, and the yen strengthened 0.5% to 157 per dollar. Treasury yields edged up (10-year +2 bp to 4.16%; 2-year +2 bp to 3.50%), while markets priced two Fed cuts in 2026.
Seasonal and valuation statistics framed debate about 2026 risk. The “Santa Claus rally” window (last five trading days of December plus first two of January) has been positive about 80% of the time since 1928, averaging +1.6%, even as recent history has been less reliable. Strategists’ S&P 500 targets are clustered at 7,000–8,100 (a 16% spread) alongside expectations for ~14% earnings growth; meanwhile the P/E multiple sits above 94% of readings since 1960 while consumer sentiment is at its 1st percentile. Commodities jumped (WTI +2.5% to $57.94; gold +2.4% to $4,442.78) and crypto was steady (Bitcoin $88,346.39; Ether $2,984.57).
