英伟达公布3Q业绩后，其股价先在盘后飙升，随后周四整日回落，并在周五仅部分修复，使英伟达较发布业绩时仍下跌近3%，而标普500回到原位。VIX飙升至自四月“解放日关税”以来最高点，反映对AI估值泡沫的担忧。比特币与重新上市的Meme ETF自5月与10月高点后经历两个月大幅回调，显示投机仓位集体去杠杆。英伟达估值依赖需求持续“炽热”，但AI周期降温、竞争者技术突破、或超大规模客户自研芯片均构成潜在下行风险。
花旗数据显示超大规模企业资本开支保持高位，受益群体逐步多元化。Google 上周发布 Gemini 3，被视为迄今能力最强的模型，并完全使用自家 TPU 而非英伟达 GPU 训练。TPU 更低成本、更省电，并针对大规模训练优化，使 Gemini 3 有能力服务逾十亿用户并降低推理成本。Alphabet 股价自2025年5月起显著跑赢，反映投资者对其AI盈利路径的重估。Meta 的 MTIA 与 Amazon 的 Tranium 亦在承担自研AI负载，Google 计划向外部出售 TPU，Anthropic 预计可访问多达一百万颗 TPU。
英伟达强调其架构可运行所有前沿AI模型，是唯一具此兼容性的体系。然而随着 Google、Meta、Amazon 推进定制芯片，业界认为自研硅的成本可能仅为英伟达的一小部分。若客户成功减少对英伟达硬件的依赖，其定价权及市场风向标地位可能被削弱。当前市场仍将英伟达视为风险资产的核心锚点，其股价波动继续同步放大至更广的美股指数。
After Nvidia released 3Q results, its stock surged after hours, then declined throughout Thursday, and only partly rebounded Friday, leaving it almost 3% below its pre-earnings level while the S&P 500 returned to where it started. The VIX jumped to its highest since April’s tariff scare, indicating renewed anxiety about AI valuations. Bitcoin and the relaunched Meme ETF have both undergone a sharp two-month drawdown since their May and October peaks, signaling broad speculative deleveraging. Nvidia’s valuation requires sustained “red-hot” demand, yet risks include an AI-cycle cooldown, competitor breakthroughs, and hyperscalers designing away their dependence.
Citi data show hyperscaler capex remains elevated, with beneficiaries diversifying. Google’s Gemini 3, widely viewed as the most capable model so far, was trained entirely on in-house TPUs rather than Nvidia GPUs. TPUs are cheaper, more power-efficient, and optimized for large-scale training, enabling Gemini 3 to serve over a billion users at lower inference cost. Alphabet has meaningfully outperformed since May 2025 as investors reprice its AI profitability. Meta’s MTIA and Amazon’s Tranium also support proprietary workloads; Google plans to sell TPUs externally, with Anthropic expecting access to up to one million units.
Nvidia maintains its architecture uniquely runs all frontier models, but growing custom-silicon efforts from Google, Meta, and Amazon could erode its advantage at a fraction of the cost. If major customers reduce hardware dependence, Nvidia’s pricing power and market-leader signaling role may diminish. For now, its movements still tightly dictate broader U.S. market reactions.