过去一年里，美俄围绕乌克兰战争提出了多轮方案，但在领土与安全保障上仍无协议；与此同时，俄方据称以解除制裁为交换，向美方抛出高达12万亿美元的交易承诺。这个数字约为俄罗斯2.2万亿美元年经济产出的6倍，明显高于现实体量。

可实现的商业规模要小得多：2021年欧盟对俄货物销售约1060亿美元，而美国仅约60亿美元；即使制裁放松，更多也只是争夺约3000亿美元年出口流中的物流、融资与贸易费用。存量机会同样有限，撤离西方企业资产总估值约600亿美元，且KSE跟踪的1500家外企在2021年的年利润仅180亿美元（对应约3000亿美元营收）。

资源叙事虽大但落地风险更高：俄方宣称西西伯利亚可采资源约120亿桶，北极潜在可采约500亿桶，Vostok项目预算约1600亿美元并目标在2030年代达到每日200万桶（约全球当前产量的2%），另称稀土储量2900万吨并欲将全球份额从1.3%提至2030年的10%。但近2.3万项制裁、美国国内政治掣肘、欧洲不愿同步解禁，以及中国份额已从战前25%升至2024年的62%（且30%俄贸易以人民币计价）共同表明，即便按极乐观假设美企每年拿到3400亿美元“流量”，也远非可持续利润，更难累积成12万亿美元级回报。

Over the past year, repeated U.S.-Russia talks on ending the Ukraine war produced proposals but no territorial or security deal, while parallel business channels reportedly floated up to $12 trillion in exchange for sanctions relief. That headline figure is about 6x Russia’s $2.2 trillion annual output, signaling political salesmanship more than economic reality.

The investable opportunity appears far smaller: in 2021 EU goods sales to Russia were about $106 billion versus roughly $6 billion from the U.S., and even with easing sanctions much of the gain would likely be competition for fees and margins on roughly $300 billion of annual Russian commodity exports. Legacy opportunities are also limited, with exited Western assets last valued near $60 billion and KSE-tracked foreign firms earning only about $18 billion profit on roughly $300 billion revenue in 2021.

Resource upside is large on paper but highly conditional: estimates cite ~12 billion recoverable barrels in West Siberia, up to ~50 billion exploitable Arctic barrels, a $160 billion Vostok build-out targeting 2 million barrels/day in the 2030s (about 2% of current world output), and 29 million tonnes of rare earths with Russia aiming to raise global mining share from 1.3% to 10% by 2030. Yet nearly 23,000 sanctions, U.S./EU political constraints, and displacement by Asian suppliers—China’s import share rising from 25% prewar to 62% in 2024, with 30% of Russian trade in yuan—imply that even an extreme scenario of $340 billion in annual U.S.-linked flows would be difficult to sustain and still far from a credible path to $12 trillion returns.

Source: How big is the prize of reopening Russia?

Subtitle: The Kremlin is promising $12trn-worth of deals to Donald Trump’s administratio

Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 04:53 上午