自 2024 年 4 月起的以旧换新补贴规模约 3000 亿元（约 430 亿美元），据估算带动超过 1600 万辆购车，约占总销量的三分之一；但多地在过去一年提前叫停，显示资金吃紧，后续即使延续也可能下调单车补贴。再叠加 2026 年 1 月 1 日起对电动车加征 5% 税负，以及已持续约 3 年的价格战侵蚀全链条利润，监管部门在 2025 年 12 月中旬提出打击低于成本销售仍难根治供需失衡。
海外市场同款车型往往可卖到国内的两倍以上，但壁垒正在上升：俄罗斯在 2024 年 10 月提高进口费用并导致对俄出口明显降温（部分报导称出口一度下滑 58%），墨西哥取代俄罗斯成为最大目的地且近期核准 50% 关税。比亚迪前 11 个月海外销量超过 90 万辆、同比增 150%，相较奇瑞约 15% 的增幅更激进；同时其长期借款在一季内由 55 亿元升至 610 亿元，并在匈牙利、印尼、土耳其扩产、于巴西巴伊亚投产 10 亿美元工厂。出海若把大幅折扣（如泰国被曝最高约 38%）也一并输出，可能重演压缩毛利的恶性循环，因此本地化生产与抑制不理性降价成为关键。
China’s auto market is saturating, pushing domestic brands to expand overseas as demand softens. Bloomberg Intelligence expects annual revenues in the world’s largest car market to fall 3%–5% next year, the first decline since 2022, as a property slump and job insecurity keep consumers cautious.
A trade-in subsidy launched in April 2024 totaled about 300 billion yuan ($43 billion) and is estimated to have supported over 16 million purchases—roughly one-third of all sales—but several cities ended it early as funds ran low, and any renewal may offer smaller per-car support. With a new 5% tax on electric vehicles starting Jan. 1, 2026 and a roughly three-year price war squeezing margins across the supply chain, a mid-December 2025 proposal to curb below-cost sales may not solve the deeper supply-demand imbalance.
Selling abroad can yield more than double the price of the same car, yet barriers are rising: Russia hiked import fees in Oct. 2024 and Chinese exports there reportedly plunged 58% at one point, while Mexico has become the top destination even after approving 50% tariffs. BYD sold over 900,000 vehicles overseas in the first 11 months of the year (+150% year on year) versus Chery’s ~15% gain, while BYD’s long-term borrowing jumped to 61 billion yuan from 5.5 billion the prior quarter as it scales plants in Hungary, Indonesia, and Turkey and opened a $1 billion facility in Brazil’s Bahia. If exporters also export deep discounts (reports cite up to ~38% in Thailand), they risk recreating the margin-destroying dynamics seen at home, making localization and discipline on pricing critical.
