多个衰退讯号曾亮红灯，但美国经济仍屡次避开：美国公债殖利率曲线在 2022 年倒挂，失业率公式的 Sahm 规则在 2024 年被触发。2025 年 4 月「解放日」关税公布后，彭博对经济学家的月度调查显示，未来一年衰退机率从就职日前后约 20% 跳升至 40%。但股市与企业获利回升，AI 带动资料中心建设热潮，甚至被形容为新一轮（第四次）工业革命。

展望 2026 年，预测偏温和成长但风险不低。穆迪分析估计 2026 年衰退风险约 42%，而其所称「健康」经济下约为 15%；彭博受访分析师预测 GDP 成长约 2%，并给出约 30% 的衰退机率。前景倚赖四大支柱：就业、通膨、消费与 AI，任一环节转弱都可能放大冲击。就业面呈现罕见组合：失业与裁员接近历史低点，但招募也降至数十年低位。

关税像「脚踝负重」推升通膨、迫使联准会更慢降息；Redfin 首席经济学家估计 2026 年衰退机率约 33%，但不少关税已下调、延后或豁免，且法院可能进一步取消。消费约占 GDP 的 70%，然而最富有的 10% 现在贡献了接近一半的美国总支出，使经济更易受股市回档影响。AI 既是成长引擎也是集中风险：与 AI 深度相关的「七巨头」市值已超过标普 500 总市值的三分之一。

Recession signals have flashed, yet the US has kept dodging them: the Treasury yield curve inverted in 2022, and the Sahm rule triggered in 2024. In April 2025, after “Liberation Day” tariffs, Bloomberg’s economist survey raised the next‑year downturn probability to 40% from about 20% around Inauguration Day. Markets and profits rebounded, and an AI-led data‑center building boom revived “industrial revolution” talk.

Looking into 2026, forecasters see modest growth but nontrivial risk. Moody’s Analytics puts 2026 recession odds near 42%, versus roughly 15% in a “healthy” economy; Bloomberg-surveyed analysts project about 2% GDP growth with a 30% recession chance. The four pillars are labor, inflation, consumers, and AI—if one weakens, the margin for error is thin. Labor is unusual: layoffs and unemployment are near historic lows while hiring is at multi‑decade lows.

Tariffs have acted as “ankle weights” by nudging inflation up and slowing the pace of Fed rate cuts; Redfin’s chief economist estimates a ~33% 2026 downturn risk, though many duties have been reduced, deferred, or exempted and courts may remove more. Consumers drive ~70% of GDP, but the top 10% now generate nearly half of US spending, leaving the system sensitive to a market drop. AI is both engine and concentration risk: the “Magnificent 7” exceed one‑third of S&P 500 value.