彭博《商业周刊》的「预测市场」聚焦把赌注与交易混在一起的平台（如 Polymarket、Kalshi），押注范围从战争、选举到名人动态；在民调失准与赌博规则放宽的背景下，这些市场被一些人视为可用来预测经济与文化事件的「非正式预言机」。文章时间点为 2025 年 12 月 17 日 19:30（GMT+8）。

多个议题以门槛与比例呈现风险：美国麻疹「消除状态」已维持 25 年，但若疫情延续超过 12 个月就可能失去认定；德州自去年 1 月开始的疫情迹象显示仍可能扩散。最高法院大法官终身任职的年龄对比鲜明：霍姆斯 90 岁退休、布雷耶 83 岁；而 77 岁的汤玛斯传闻可能考虑离任。校园手机禁令已在 14 个州实施，且 74% 的美国成年人支持。

地缘政治与财政时间表同样量化：川普曾称上任 24 小时内止战乌克兰，但其任期将近一年仍未达成；联邦史上最长停摆在 11 月结束，但拨款仅延至 1 月，仍有再度停摆的可能。法国王冠珠宝窃案涉案者被捕，但价值 1 亿美元的赃物仍未寻回。资本市场方面，苹果跨过 1 兆美元后 7 年，AI 热潮推高估值：苹果、Alphabet、微软、辉达均超过 3 兆美元，亚马逊、博通、Meta、特斯拉可能跟进，但 AI 泡沫若破裂估值或大幅回落。

Bloomberg Businessweek’s “Prediction Market” frames platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as hybrids of betting and trading, with wagers spanning wars, elections, and even celebrity activity. With polling credibility slipping and gambling rules easing, these markets are treated by some as informal oracles for economic and cultural outcomes. The item is dated Dec. 17, 2025, 7:30 PM (GMT+8).

Several questions hinge on numeric thresholds and shares. The US has held measles “elimination status” for 25 years, but a designation can be lost if an outbreak lasts beyond 12 months; signs suggest a Texas outbreak that began last January may still be spreading. Lifetime judicial tenure spotlights ages: Holmes retired at 90, Breyer at 83, and 77-year-old Clarence Thomas is rumored to be considering an exit. School cellphone bans now exist in 14 states, backed by 74% of US adults.

Geopolitics and budgets also ride deadlines. Trump promised to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office, yet nearly a year into his term it remains unresolved; after the longest US government shutdown ended in November, funding only runs through January, keeping another shutdown plausible. French police have made arrests in a $100 million crown-jewel theft, but the loot is still missing. In markets, seven years after Apple crossed $1 trillion, AI enthusiasm has pushed Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia above $3 trillion, with others vying to join—until a potential AI-bubble burst resets valuations.