价格敏感的午餐需求没有消失，而是在转移：研究显示截至 9 月止的三个月，从餐厅/食堂等餐饮服务购买午餐的占比仍稳定在 23%。部分消费者改为自备或买更便宜的选项，例如 Walmart 网购罐装凯萨沙拉不到 8 美元；也有人向速食「降级」，在曼哈顿以约 11 美元买到 Chick-fil-A 沙拉或 Taco Bell 的碗类。
速食靠折扣抢回客群：麦当劳主打 5 美元香肠蛋玛芬套餐与 8 美元大麦克套餐，汉堡王以 5 美元与 7 美元餐促销奏效；相较之下，Chipotle 与 Cava 公开抗拒以降价换量，却又宣称可在约 10 美元或 12.95 美元买到「有价值」的餐。市场同时出现证据支持降价：Just Salad 在曼哈顿把 14.99 美元的餐盘降到 9.99 美元后，销量翻倍；而替代方案可能是用折扣提供更小份量，因许多碗餐可逼近 1,000 卡，顾客既怕浪费也怕「缩水变相涨价」。
In a strained economy, fast-casual “bowl” brands are being exposed by the numbers: Sweetgreen’s third-quarter sales fell 9.5% year over year and, as of Dec. 15, it had lost 77% of its 2025 market value. Chipotle shifted from expecting 2025 to be flat versus 2024 to forecasting a low-single-digit sales decline, with shares down 40% for the year as of Dec. 15. Cava says traffic has stalled and cut same-store growth to 3%–4% from 4%–6%.
Price-sensitive lunch demand hasn’t vanished; it’s reallocating. One data point shows lunches bought from restaurants, cafeterias, and other food-service outlets held steady at 23% in the three months ended in September. Some customers are brown-bagging or buying cheaper prepared food, like a Walmart.com jarred Caesar salad for under $8. Others are trading down to fast food, where salads or bowl-style meals can run around $11 in Manhattan.
Fast food is leaning into discounts: McDonald’s cited a $5 Sausage McMuffin with Egg Meal and an $8 Big Mac Meal, while Burger King is pushing $5 and $7 deals. By contrast, Chipotle and Cava resist discounting, even as they argue customers can eat for about $10 or $12.95. Evidence suggests price cuts can move volume: Just Salad dropped a Manhattan plate from $14.99 to $9.99 and sales more than doubled. A plausible compromise is smaller, discounted portions—many “healthy” bowls approach 1,000 calories—balancing value perceptions against waste and backlash over stealth shrinkflation.
