乌克兰谈判的两大卡点中，安全保证似有突破，但领土更难让步：俄罗斯已占领约20%，若再加上乌方仍控制的顿内茨克剩余地区，仅多约1个百分点；然而这不是「房地产交易」，因为它会改变未来再度入侵的军事态势与防线深度。
前线距离的「几公里」会放大成城市命运：在奥恰基夫，俄军据点仅4–5公里外；在尼古拉耶夫，俄军曾推进到郊区后被反推10–15公里，但随后仍连续321天、每天最多32枚短程飞弹轰击，造成逾6,000栋建筑受损，47万人口中近30万外逃（约64%）。2022年11月乌军再把俄军推回约60公里后，城市在€3.17亿（约$3.72亿）外援下重建3年，新增企业逾580家，并铺设/更换60公里供水管线与200公里钢制水管。
数字也解释为何领土细节牵动战后复原：敖德萨港口仍停摆，逾100艘船与粮驳被困4年；全国人口从2013年的4,500万降至约2,800万（减少1,700万，约-38%）。其中逾1,000万为退休者，另有500万至700万过于年幼，最多仅约1,100万人可投入重建；要补缺口，必须让600万至700万难民安心返国，而这取决于能否在停战后把俄军火力与无人机「几公里的近距离」推离，避免以混合战延续不稳定。
Negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine show a partial opening on security guarantees, but territory remains the harder constraint. Advocates of a US-drafted 28-point ceasefire argue that Russia already occupies about 20% of Ukraine and taking the remaining Ukrainian-held part of Donetsk would add only about 1 percentage point. Ukraine resists because those miles are not “real estate”: they reshape defensive depth and the risk of a renewed invasion.
On the southern front, proximity drives daily vulnerability. In Ochakiv, Russian positions sit only 4–5 km away, with drones overhead and key facilities moved underground. Mykolaiv nearly fell in February 2022; after Russia was pushed back 10–15 km, the city still endured up to 32 short-range missiles per day for 321 consecutive days, damaging more than 6,000 buildings and sending nearly 300,000 of 470,000 residents to flee (~64%). A later Ukrainian counteroffensive in November 2022 pushed forces back about 60 km, enabling three years of rebuilding supported by €317 million ($372 million), 580+ new businesses, a new 60 km water pipeline, and replacement of 200 km of corroded mains.
The numbers underline why any territorial bargain is demographic as much as military. The port remains idle, with 100+ ships and grain barges trapped for four years, and renewed frontline status would chill investment. Ukraine’s population has fallen from 45 million in 2013 to about 28 million now (-17 million, ~-38%): a little over 10 million pensioners and 5–7 million too young to work leave at best ~11 million to rebuild. Bringing 6–7 million refugees home requires a settlement that pushes Russian firepower far enough away to prevent destabilization disguised as peace.