文章认为，中国在2026年把经济增长目标定为4.5%至5%，比上一年更低且更宽松，尽管专业预测者的共识增速仅为4.6%。核心判断是，这一目标不是过高而是过低，因为近年的经验表明它既会成为政策下限，也会成为刺激需求努力的上限。

最有力的证据来自价格：按某些指标，中国已经连续三年处于价格下跌之中，这种持续的通缩会加重债务负担、压缩货币宽松空间并削弱价格信号。按保守估计，要在2026年弥合产出缺口，经济增速必须超过5.3%，因此4.5%的增速不足以更充分地利用资本和劳动力。

文章还认为，更高目标未必意味着浪费性投资，因为更慷慨的社会支出和对房地产市场可信的财政托底可以提振家庭支出。相反，过慢增长本身也代价高昂：在中国城市里，超过16%的年轻人失业，而2007年至2009年“洪水般”刺激留下的记忆正使当前政策从当年的做得太多转向如今的做得太少。

The article argues that China’s 2026 growth target of 4.5-5% is lower and looser than last year’s, even though the consensus forecast among professional forecasters is only 4.6%. Its core claim is that the target is not too high but too low, because recent experience suggests it acts both as a floor for policy and as a ceiling on efforts to revive demand.

The strongest evidence comes from prices: by some measures, China has endured falling prices for three years, and this persistent deflation raises debt burdens, limits room for monetary easing, and weakens price signals. On a conservative estimate, closing the output gap in 2026 would require growth of more than 5.3%, so 4.5% growth is insufficient to use capital and labour more fully.

The piece also argues that a higher target need not mean wasteful investment, because more generous social spending and a credible fiscal backstop for property could lift household spending. By contrast, unnecessarily slow growth is itself costly: more than 16% of young people in China’s cities are unemployed, while memories of the 2007-09 “flood-like” stimulus have pushed current policy from doing too much then to doing too little now.

Source: China needs a more ambitious growth target

Subtitle: Otherwise a fourth year of deflation awaits

Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 07:10 上午