欧洲的养老金结构与资本市场薄弱相互交织：随着人口老龄化，现收现付制承受越来越大压力，在德国，今年预计联邦预算的三分之一将转入养老金体系；与此同时，欧盟股市总市值仅为国内生产总值的85%，远低于美国的220%，削弱了对高风险研发和风险投资退出的支持。核心论点是，欧洲约30万亿美元的养老金储蓄本可把这些弱点转化为优势，通过提供长期资本来深化市场并为创业融资。
瑞典和荷兰显示了规模效应：瑞典养老金资产约为6710亿美元，相当于国内生产总值的110%，而荷兰集体养老金资金约为国内生产总值的145%；自2023年以来，荷兰资金被允许更自由地投资于风险更高的资产。摩根士丹利估计，在扩大以市场为基础的职业养老金之后，丹麦和瑞士在十年内将资产提高了约占国内生产总值20个百分点；如果这种做法推广到整个欧元区，将释放超过3万亿欧元（2.58万亿美元）的资本。
这项改革涉及短期财政与长期回报之间的权衡：政府可以建立以债务融资、专业投资的缓冲基金，默认将职业养老金投入资本市场，并允许储户把部分缴款转入个人投资账户，即使这在短期内意味着更宽的财政赤字。文章认为，在公共债务负担上升、欧洲科技生态开始显现活力之际，更依赖市场的养老金体系能够减少对公共财政的依赖，而潜在回报从未如此之高。
Europe’s pension structure and weak capital markets reinforce each other: as populations age, pay-as-you-go systems face rising strain, and in Germany a projected one-third of the federal budget will go to pensions this year; meanwhile, the EU’s stockmarkets are worth just 85% of GDP versus 220% in America, limiting support for risky R&D and venture-capital exits. The core argument is that Europe’s roughly $30trn in pension savings could turn these weaknesses into strengths by deepening markets and financing entrepreneurs with long-term capital.
Sweden and the Netherlands show the scale effect: Sweden’s pension assets are about $671bn, equal to 110% of GDP, while Dutch collective pension funds hold around 145% of GDP in assets; since 2023, Dutch funds have been freer to invest in riskier assets. Morgan Stanley estimates that Denmark and Switzerland raised assets by about 20 percentage points of GDP over a decade after expanding market-based occupational pensions, and applying that model across the euro zone could unlock more than €3trn ($2.58trn) in capital.
The reform case is a trade-off between short-term fiscal cost and long-term return: governments could build debt-funded, professionally invested buffer funds, default occupational pensions into capital markets, and let savers direct part of contributions into individual investment accounts, even if that widens fiscal deficits in the near term. The article argues that with public debt burdens rising and Europe’s tech scene showing signs of life, a more market-based pension system would reduce reliance on the public purse, and the potential payoff has rarely been higher.
Source: It’s time to unleash Europe’s pensions
Subtitle: One reform offers both security in old age and dynamism now
Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 04:16 上午