第三次海湾战争已卷入波斯湾沿岸全部8个国家以及另外六个以上国家，重塑的规模可与1991年和2003年的两次海湾战争相比。1991年战争在仅4天地面作战后将伊拉克军队逐出科威特，而2003年战争虽在数周内推翻萨达姆政权，却又陷入近10年的叛乱，说明速胜曾转化为长期地区后果。
人员与军事损失已经很高：一个伊朗人权组织称已有1,114名平民死亡，其中包括180多名儿童，而美国据称已在伊朗各地发动2,000多次打击。伊朗最初一天向以色列发射约180枚导弹、向海湾国家发射250枚导弹，但到第四天已降至仅几十枚，显示其打击节奏急剧下降。
海湾国家承受了伊朗报复的大部分火力：阿联酋称4天内遭到189枚导弹和941架无人机袭击，并表示拦截了93%的来袭目标，而巴林、科威特和卡塔尔报告的数量也达数百。尽管目前至少已有7人死亡、数十人受伤且仅拦截弹成本就已达数十亿美元，但民意和战略信号仍然复杂：81%的以色列人支持打击伊朗，却只有38%的人对内塔尼亚胡表示高度信任，而伊朗9200万人口和海湾国家都在权衡一场可能再持续2到3天或4到5周的战争风险。
The third Gulf war has drawn in all 8 states bordering the Persian Gulf plus more than six others, making it as region-shaping as the Gulf wars of 1991 and 2003. The 1991 war expelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait after just 4 days of ground fighting, while the 2003 war toppled Saddam within weeks but then bogged America down in an insurgency for almost a decade, showing how quick victories can produce long strategic aftershocks.
The human and military toll is already severe: an Iranian human-rights group says 1,114 civilians have been killed, including more than 180 children, while America has reportedly carried out more than 2,000 strikes across Iran. Iran launched around 180 missiles at Israel and 250 at Gulf states on day one, but by day four those barrages had fallen to the low dozens, indicating a sharp decline in sustained fire.
The Gulf monarchies have absorbed much of Iran’s retaliation: the UAE says it faced 189 missiles and 941 drones in 4 days and intercepted 93% of incoming projectiles, while Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar also reported attacks in the hundreds. Even with at least 7 deaths, scores wounded, and interceptor costs already in the billions of dollars, public opinion and strategy remain conflicted: 81% of Israelis support the strikes on Iran but only 38% express high trust in Mr Netanyahu, while Iran’s 92m people and Gulf governments alike are calculating the risks of a war that could last another 2 to 3 days or 4 to 5 weeks.
Source: How the latest regional conflict is reshaping the Middle East
Subtitle: Neither Iran, nor Israel, nor the Gulf will ever be quite the same
Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 07:20 上午 | DUBAI, JERUSALEM, KAPIKOY AND RIYADH