中国家庭正将即将到期的巨额存款转向收益更高的资产。2026年约有50万亿元人民币的一年以上定期存款到期，较上年增加10万亿元，其中约30万亿元集中在大型国有银行，且到期高峰在上半年。背景是房地产长期低迷、股市多年回报乏力促使资金涌入存款，而在银行多次降息后，部分中小银行定存利率已降至略高于1%，推动约7万亿美元规模的现金寻找新去处。

资金再配置已开始显现。参与型保险需求走强，股票与基金也受益于市场回暖。过去一个月中国股市市值新增逾1万亿美元，科技股领涨，类似纳斯达克的科创50指数在2026年已上涨超过12%。全年看，CSI 300指数在经历三年下跌后已连续两年上涨，2026年至今接近3%。同时，黄金价格创历史新高，中国投资者成为重要推力之一。

政策层面强调“慢牛”。历史数据显示，每年到期的数十万亿元存款中，超过90%仍留在银行体系内，通过理财、保险和基金等渠道间接进入权益资产。监管部门近期收紧两融推广，要求券商上报需求、避免激进营销，并密切监测交易以抑制投机。整体而言，资金从存款向股票、黄金及稳健型产品的渐进转移，既为市场提供增量支持，也符合稳增长与防风险并重的取向。

Chinese households are reallocating vast maturing savings into higher-yielding assets. In 2026, about 50 trillion yuan of deposits with maturities longer than one year will expire, up 10 trillion yuan from last year, with roughly 30 trillion yuan held at large state banks and a heavier concentration in the first half. After years of property weakness and lackluster equity returns drove funds into deposits, repeated rate cuts have pushed term yields toward just above 1% at some smaller banks, prompting roughly $7 trillion to seek alternatives.

The shift is already visible. Demand for participating insurance policies has surged, while stocks and funds are benefiting from a rebound. Chinese equities added more than $1 trillion in market value over the past month, led by technology; the Nasdaq-like Star 50 Index is up over 12% in 2026. On an annual basis, the CSI 300 Index has risen for two consecutive years after a three-year slump and is up nearly 3% this year. Gold prices have also hit records, with Chinese investors among key buyers.

Policy aims to foster a “slow bull.” Historically, more than 90% of tens of trillions of yuan in maturing savings stay within the banking system, flowing via wealth management, insurance, and funds with equity exposure. Regulators recently tightened margin-financing promotion, requiring brokerages to report demand and avoid aggressive marketing, while closely monitoring trading to curb speculation. Overall, a measured migration from deposits into stocks, gold, and steadier products is providing incremental market support while balancing growth with risk control.