美国与伊朗的停火已进入第六周，比先前的战斗持续时间还长，但海湾地区仍陷于僵局，霍尔木兹海峡几乎没有交通。5月10日伊朗提出永久停火方案，但关键问题仍未解决，包括铀浓缩暂停期限、其高浓缩铀库存处置，以及是否拆除部分核设施；特朗普称该提议“完全不可接受”。

拖延的代价已清晰显现：美国汽油均价升至每加仑4.52美元，较战前上涨52%，伊朗一名官员估计已有100多万人失业。海湾经济中约四分之一的GDP和大部分出口收入来自油气业，沙特原油出口下降约三分之一，阿联酋减半，巴林、科威特和卡塔尔几乎没有出口。

旅游和服务业同样承压：迪拜本季度酒店入住率预计仅10%，低于2月的80%，巴林3月酒店刷卡消费比2月下降64%，而阿联酋为企业提供了超过60亿迪拉姆、约16亿美元的纾困。尽管如此，卡塔尔一艘液化天然气船已于5月10日经霍尔木兹海峡通行；若贸易和航运停滞再持续数周，沙特阿美预计市场要到2027年才会恢复正常。

America and Iran are now in the sixth week of a truce, longer than the fighting that came before it, while the Gulf remains stuck in limbo with almost no traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. On May 10th Iran floated a permanent-ceasefire proposal, but key issues remain unresolved, including the moratorium on uranium enrichment, the fate of its highly-enriched uranium stockpile, and whether some nuclear facilities must be dismantled; Donald Trump called the proposal “totally unacceptable”.

The costs of delay are already visible: motorists in America are paying an average of $4.52 a gallon for petrol, up 52% from before the war, and one Iranian official estimates that more than 1m people have lost their jobs. Oil and gas produce roughly a quarter of Gulf GDP and most export revenue, yet Saudi oil exports are down by around a third, the UAE’s by half, and Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have exported almost nothing.

Tourism and services are also under strain: Dubai hotel occupancy is forecast at just 10% this quarter, down from 80% in February, while hotel card spending in Bahrain fell 64% in March versus February, and the UAE has offered more than 6bn dirhams, or $1.6bn, in relief to businesses. Still, one Qatari LNG tanker passed through Hormuz on May 10th; if trade and shipping stay curtailed for more than a few weeks, Saudi Aramco says the market may not normalise until 2027.

Source: Gulf states fear irreversible fallout from the Iran crisis

Subtitle: If there is no deal by the end of the summer, long-term economic harm is likely

Dateline: 5月 14, 2026 11:25 上午 | Dubai