莫斯科5月9日胜利日阅兵首次连续二十年没有坦克和装甲车辆驶过红场，原因是乌克兰无人机威胁加剧，俄方还在阅兵前切断了莫斯科和圣彼得堡的移动互联网，并从偏远地区调回大量防空系统。尽管泽连斯基批准阅兵举行，普京称战争“正在走向结束”，但这场规模缩小的阅兵更多象征着俄罗斯的脆弱而非胜利。

战场上，俄罗斯春季攻势失败，4月还出现自2024年8月以来首次净失地，按ISW地图估算，过去30天俄罗斯失去113平方公里控制权。俄军每月伤亡约35,000人，总计已接近140万死伤，且死伤比可能已从1:2到1:3恶化为接近2:1，原因是多达80%的伤亡来自FPV无人机，并且俄军往往把伤员留在战场上。

无人机“杀伤区”正向俄罗斯后方扩展到约20公里，俄军后勤、集结和指挥节点频繁受打击；乌克兰则更依赖无人地面车辆撤运与补给。乌方还以50至300公里中程无人机打击俄军，泽连斯基称今年采购量比2025年全年高出五倍；3月乌克兰首次在长程无人机袭击数量上超过俄罗斯，打击范围已延伸至距边境近2000公里、覆盖俄罗斯70%人口的区域。

This year’s Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9th was stripped of triumph, as tanks and other armoured vehicles failed to roll through Red Square for the first time in two decades. Russia cut mobile internet in Moscow and St Petersburg and redeployed air-defence systems from distant regions because Ukraine’s drones had become too effective a threat.

The reduced parade symbolised Russia’s weakness more than its military might, even as Putin said the war was “coming to an end.” On the battlefield, Russia’s spring offensive failed, it lost 113 square kilometres in the past 30 days, and in April it suffered its first net territorial loss since August 2024.

Russian losses are mounting at about 35,000 soldiers a month, with nearly 1.4m killed or seriously wounded since the invasion, and the killed-to-wounded ratio may have worsened to nearly 2:1 because up to 80% of casualties now come from FPV drones. Ukraine has also expanded long-range and mid-range drone strikes, hitting targets up to 2,000km away and putting 70% of Russia’s population within range.

Source: Russia is stumbling on the battlefield

Subtitle: As casualties soar in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin looks ever more beleaguered at home

Dateline: 5月 14, 2026 11:25 上午