市场近期较少纠结于特斯拉在纯电排名的下滑，因马斯克把叙事重心放在 AI、自动驾驶、机器人与 robotaxi。美国需求前景成为 2026 年关键背景：特朗普政府停止购买插电车的联邦补贴并弱化油耗与排放规范；投资人也更倾向用 AI/机器人进展而非交付量来解读股价。特斯拉股价周五纽约时间下午下跌 2.8%，去年上涨 11%，但在 12 月中旬创新高后涨幅收敛。
欧洲趋势转弱：去年前 11 个月，比亚迪在德国与英国的注册量都超过特斯拉；特斯拉同期欧洲销量下滑 28%，且在法国、西班牙、瑞典等地 12 月跌幅明显。华尔街对 2026 交付更保守：两年前市场曾预期超过 300 万辆，如今平均预估降至约 180 万辆。相对地，能源储存业务走强：上季部署 14.2 GWh（高于一年前的 11 GWh），全年部署 46.7 GWh，年增接近 50%。
Tesla ceded the global EV sales crown to BYD: fourth-quarter deliveries fell 16% year over year and missed analyst estimates; 2025 sales slid by almost 9%, marking a second straight annual decline. BYD grew in both the quarter and the full year, delivering about 2.26 million battery-electric vehicles in 2025 versus Tesla’s 1.64 million.
Investors have increasingly treated EV deliveries as less central as Elon Musk emphasizes AI, autonomous driving, robotics, and a robotaxi narrative. The 2026 backdrop is tougher in the US—Tesla’s largest market—after the Trump administration ended federal plug-in purchase incentives and weakened fuel-economy and emissions rules. Tesla shares were down 2.8% Friday afternoon in New York; the stock gained 11% last year but gave back some gains after a mid-December record.
Europe has been a key pressure point: over the first 11 months of last year, BYD registered more cars than Tesla in both Germany and the UK, while Tesla’s Europe sales fell 28% and December declines were steep in several countries. Wall Street’s 2026 delivery outlook has reset lower, from forecasts above 3 million vehicles two years ago to an average near 1.8 million. In contrast, Tesla’s energy storage surged: 14.2 GWh deployed last quarter (up from 11 GWh a year earlier) and 46.7 GWh for 2025, nearly 50% growth.
