东京丰洲市场的新年蓝鳍鲔拍卖常被视为日本股市的风向球。2025年最高价鲔鱼以2.07亿日圆（约130万美元）成交，创史上第二高；得标者为以「银座おのでら」闻名的小野寺集团（由批发商Yamayuki代标），已连续第五年夺标。近约15年来，单尾鲔鱼喊价破1,000万日圆逐渐成为常态，活动也从「带旺生意」转向更强的宣传与品牌投资。

小野寺在2025年以约2亿日圆买下的鲔鱼，折算每贯寿司约3万日圆；但实际贩售为两贯1,160日圆（大腹与赤身各一贯），帐面上与食材成本落差极大，显示其更看重曝光效益，并表态将在2026年再度参与。市场人士也提到「鲔鱼开盘价与股价呈强相关」：2013年鲔鱼首度破1亿日圆，同年日经平均上涨57%。

近年走势也被拿来对照：2022年鲔鱼价格处于近年低点，遇上俄乌战争引发的风险趋避，股市亦走弱；2025年鲔鱼再创第二高价时，日经平均曾刷新至5万点以上。除鲔鱼外，2025年多种海产开市价也创高：北海道札幌秋刀鱼达每公斤888,888日圆；丰洲海胆每400克700万日圆；金泽一尾寒𫚕（冬季𫚕鱼）达400万日圆。

Tokyo’s Toyosu New Year bluefin tuna auction is widely treated as a barometer for Japan’s stock market. The top fish in the 2025 auction sold for ¥207 million (about $1.3 million), the second-highest on record, bought by Onodera Group via wholesaler Yamayuki for a fifth straight year. Over roughly the past 15 years, headline bids above ¥10 million have become common, and the event has shifted from industry “good luck” spending toward explicit advertising and brand investment.

Onodera’s roughly ¥200 million 2025 purchase implied about ¥30,000 per piece of sushi, yet it retailed the tuna at ¥1,160 for two pieces (one fatty toro and one lean akami), a dramatic gap versus ingredient cost. That suggests the bid is justified as marketing spend rather than food margin, and the company says it will join the 2026 auction. Analysts also argue there is a “strong correlation” between opening tuna prices and stock performance: in 2013, when the top tuna first exceeded ¥100 million, the Nikkei rose 57%.

Recent comparisons reinforce the narrative: in 2022, tuna prices hit a recent low and shares slumped amid risk-off sentiment after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; in 2025, when tuna prices reached the second-highest level, the Nikkei climbed to a record above 50,000. Other opening auctions in 2025 also printed extreme numbers, including Pacific saury at ¥888,888 per kilogram in Sapporo, sea urchin at ¥7 million per 400 grams at Toyosu, and a single winter yellowtail at ¥4 million in Kanazawa.