本文整理约1,150名Nikkei Asia读者对「2026年亚洲」的预测，并凸显关键数字与趋势。读者曾低估特朗普回锅后的冲击：他是否会对中国商品加征至少60%关税、多数人判断「不会」；也多数预期会重启与金正恩对话。2025年中国股市却超出预期转强，主要指数上涨逾20%，与「大致持平」的投票分歧，显示政策与市场波动仍是核心变数。
在贸易与成长端，特朗普与习近平于10月30日达成为期1年的贸易战停火（至次年10月到期），包含下调美方关税、北京承诺采购美国大豆、暂停稀土出口管制、并延后对抵美中国船舶的新费用；读者以些微差距押注停火能撑到到期。印度在承受对美出口50%关税下仍展现韧性：GDP年增率于7–9月由7.8%升至8.2%。日本方面，执政联盟民调支持度高达75%，但上议院少数与联盟变数仍可能影响施政；日圆在12月政策调整后跌破157，市场普遍把160视为可能干预门槛，因此读者多不认为会到170。
科技、选举、体育与资产端同样由数字主导风险叙事：美方允许Nvidia向经审查的中国客户出售H200，但以25%分成换取准入；而公司在中国AI晶片市占曾高达95%，同时面临中国推动国产替代。泰国民调中人民党支持度降至17.2%（9月为22.8%），未决定选民逾40%（此前27.3%），使选情更不确定。世界杯方面，多支亚洲队参赛，日本世界排名第18、伊朗第20、南韩第22。中国房市跌势进入第5年，价格较峰值下滑逾1/3；万科涉2,000亿元人民币（约2.85亿美元）债券处置，且机构预估全国销售再降6%–7%。娱乐方面，2023年《玛利欧》全球票房约13.6亿美元，续作预计4月上映但多数读者不看好再创更大爆款。
About 1,150 Nikkei Asia readers shared 2026 predictions, highlighting how volatile policy and markets can overturn “base-case” views. Many doubted Donald Trump would impose tariffs of at least 60% on Chinese imports and expected renewed outreach to Kim Jong Un, yet policy surprises whipsawed currencies and sentiment. Readers also narrowly expected China equities to be flat, but major indexes instead rose more than 20%, underscoring momentum swings tied to exporters and AI-linked tech.
On trade and growth, Trump and Xi agreed on Oct. 30 to a one‑year ceasefire lasting to next October, including lower U.S. tariffs, China soybean purchases, and a pause in rare‑earth export controls; readers narrowly think it holds through expiry. India absorbed 50% U.S. tariffs on exports yet saw GDP growth accelerate to 8.2% year on year in Jul–Sep from 7.8% prior. Japan’s new leadership shows ~75% approval, while the yen slid past 157 per dollar; with 160 seen as an intervention line, most readers doubt 170.
Tech and politics hinge on concentrated numeric risks: the U.S. may allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to screened China buyers in exchange for a 25% revenue cut, even though Nvidia once held ~95% share of China’s AI chip market. In Thailand, People’s Party support fell to 17.2% from 22.8%, while the undecided share rose above 40% from 27.3%. Macro strains persist: China home prices are down over one‑third from peak, Vanke faced a 2 billion yuan (~$285m) bond deadline, and nationwide sales are forecast to drop another 6%–7%.