投资人走向 2026 时，同时拥抱 AI 乐观与泡沫焦虑：2025 年的涨势从超大型股扩散到更广的科技链条。即使 Alphabet、Nvidia 表现强劲，记忆体晶片与硬碟等「无聊」基础硬体反而更常带来超额报酬。美股牛市迈入第 4 年后，市场关注点正从砸钱承诺转向可量化的 ROI 与获利加速。
「新云」（neocloud）如今更像泡沫风险的代理标的。市场质疑 OpenAI 的获利能力，进而怀疑其是否能负担承诺支出，例如与 Oracle 的云端合作据称 5 年总额约 3000 亿美元；Oracle 股价在文中所指的周四收盘时，较 9 月高点已下跌超过 45%。CoreWeave 自 6 月高点以来市值约蒸发三分之二，Nebius 较 10 月高点下跌逾 42%，同时 Oracle 的信用风险指标升至金融危机以来最高，且部分资料中心时程据称由 2027 延后至 2028。
2025 年最强的 AI 相关交易往往不花俏：Sandisk、Western Digital、Seagate、Micron 等记忆体与储存股名列前茅，而 2026 年若资本支出续增，市场预期这股趋势延续。软体股仍偏弱：某 SaaS 指数下跌 10%，对比更广泛的软体指数约上涨 6%；空方强调 AI 的「生存式」威胁，多方则认为 SaaS 估值相对基本面折价 30–40%。高估值也未收敛：Palantir 长期超过 200 倍本益比仍上涨约 150%（S&P 500 第 8），29 位分析师仅 9 位给予买进，营收预估 2026 年 +43%、2027 年 +39%；Tesla 同样超过 200 倍、在 2025 年 12 月 17 日当周创新高，销售预估 2026 年 +13%、2027 年 +19%，因此市场期待高、也更要求拿出成果。
Investors enter 2026 with AI optimism and bubble anxiety after 2025’s rally broadened beyond mega-caps. Even as Alphabet and Nvidia rose, investors often did better in “boring” infrastructure like memory chips and disk drives. With the US bull market moving into its fourth year, scrutiny is shifting from spending promises to measurable ROI and profit acceleration.
Neoclouds now look like bubble proxies. Doubts about OpenAI’s profitability raise questions about paying for commitments such as an Oracle cloud deal reportedly worth about $300B over five years; Oracle is down >45% from its September peak (through the Thursday close cited). CoreWeave has fallen about two-thirds since June and Nebius >42% from an October peak, while Oracle’s credit-risk gauge is at its highest since the financial crisis and some projects reportedly slipped to 2028 from 2027.
2025’s best AI-linked trades were often unglamorous: memory and storage names (Sandisk, Western Digital, Seagate, Micron) led key leaderboards, and the bet is that capex keeps lifting them in 2026. Software stayed weak—one SaaS index -10% versus ~+6% for a broader software gauge—and bears cite AI “existential” risk, while bulls see a 30–40% valuation discount. Expensive winners stayed expensive: Palantir traded >200× earnings and rose ~150% (8th in the S&P 500); of 29 analysts, 9 rate it buy, with revenue expected +43% in 2026 and +39% in 2027. Tesla also traded >200×, hit a record in the week of Dec 17, 2025, and is forecast +13% sales in 2026 and +19% in 2027—so expectations are high and proof is required.