一个月前，伊朗流亡反对派还处于战争狂热中：1月镇压中有数千名示威者被杀后，伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊去世，欧美和加拿大多地在街头“庆祝”，并有数万人在伦敦、洛杉矶和多伦多声援希望过渡的巴列维王朝后裔莱扎·巴列维，称美国和以色列的轰炸是“人道主义”。与此同时，在伦敦一些示威者举起了以色列军队横幅与保皇旗帜，伊朗国际电视频道公开支持战争并支持恢复巴列维王朝。
然而这种气氛正在迅速减弱，示威规模明显萎缩，移民社群的声音也更趋多元；伊朗音乐人开演唱会强调废墟下平民的处境。医生、教师和学者为米纳布举行守夜——那里美国导弹击中一所学校，导致160多人死亡，其中大多是女学生，数字上比过去更突出“平民伤亡”的代价。
战后目标从政权“据点”扩展到国家基础设施后，对国内亲属安全的担忧持续上升；巴列维被指更同情阵亡美军而不是国内遭轰炸身亡的1500多名平民。3月28日，伊朗政治、族群和宗教团体在伦敦罕见联合成立“伊朗自由大会”，强调“政权更替应是伊朗人的工程”并与美国、以色列保持距离，但大会既遭巴列维支持者外部抗议，也遭亲政权者抨击，最终公报刻意回避战争措辞，显示反对派统一尚未实现，而国内每晚更多是支持政权的集会。
One month ago, the exiled Iranian opposition was still intoxicated by war fever: after January’s crackdown in which protesters were slain in the thousands and after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died, crowds in London, Los Angeles, and Toronto cheered and tens of thousands rallied behind Reza Pahlavi, who called the bombing “humanitarian.” In London, some now march with banners of the Israeli army and royalist flags, while the London-based channel Iran International openly backed the war and the restoration of the Pahlavis.
Yet that mood is fading, with rallies shrinking and a broader diaspora speaking up; Iranian musicians are filling concert halls while doctors, teachers, and academics hold vigils for Minab, where an American missile struck a school and killed over 160 people, mostly schoolgirls. As targeting expands from regime strongholds to national infrastructure, fear for family members in Iran has grown, and Pahlavi is accused of showing more sympathy for fallen American soldiers than for more than 1,500 civilians killed in Iranian bombings.
On March 28, a broad coalition of political, ethnic, and religious groups launched the Iran Freedom Congress, declaring distance from America and Israel and arguing that regime change must be an Iranian project, then displaying both monarchist and republican flags to signal inclusiveness. The initiative was attacked from both Pahlavi supporters and pro-regime figures, and the final communiqué even omitted war references; the split opposition, shrinking street support for Pahlavi’s promise of mass domestic protests, and nightly pro-regime demonstrations suggest no united democratic front has yet emerged despite expectations of postwar unrest and the possibility of renewed protests, as after the last war.
Source: Iran’s opposition in exile is rethinking its support for the war
Subtitle: The longer the war drags on, the less clear are the benefits for ordinary Iranians
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 03:22 上午