海湾战争进入第5周后，白宫讯息越来越混乱：特朗普及其特使一方面要求伊朗重开霍尔木兹海峡，同时又声称这并非战争目标；另一方面，他们一边称与“更新、更理性”的伊朗政权谈判，一边把伊朗描述为由一批“47岁”官员主导的政权。三月23日后的表面停火并非真正降温，美国和以色列仍对伊朗每天进行数百次空袭，伊朗则保持每日约100次导弹和无人机打击，并已造成约3,500人死亡，其中约一半是平民。
中东局势面临狭窄的外交窗口。特朗普将对伊朗的最后通牒推迟了两次，最新截止时间到4月6日晚，并新增了对伊朗脱盐厂的空袭威胁，同时已向该区部署约7,000名海军陆战队、伞兵和特种部队，并可能继续增兵，而美方与以方起初预估的可打击目标窗口仅剩4到5周。民意同样出现压力变化：3月30日的《经济学人/YouGov》民调中，美国共和党支持率为62%，较两周前降11个百分点，说明从约73%滑落到62%。
经济和军事趋势显示冲突很可能继续升级而非收束。霍尔木兹海峡每日通行船只仅剩6艘，较开战前的125艘几乎腰斩至约4.8%，并且在巴基斯坦牵头的交换停火提议之外，美国仍在考虑地面进攻（如夺取卡尔格岛或铀库存）；以色列3月27日已炸毁大型钢厂，其中至少一座停产，重创了伊朗年产值近70亿美元的钢铁行业。若不能达成至少“重开海峡+有限核让步+大规模制裁缓解”的协议，持久化战争风险上升，且美国民调显示更多少于1/3（30%）的人认为本国受益，高于将近一半（55%）认为以色列受益，舆论差距达25个百分点。
Five weeks into the Gulf conflict, White House messaging has grown more contradictory: Trump and his envoys demand that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz while saying that is not a war aim, and claim talks with a supposedly “new, more reasonable” Iranian regime while also describing it as a hard-line 47-year-old system. The lull since March 23 has not brought calm; the U.S. and Israel still conduct hundreds of airstrikes daily, Iran answers with roughly 100 missile-and-drone launches each day, and around 3,500 Iranians have been killed, about half of them civilians.
The diplomatic window appears narrow and shrinking. Trump twice delayed an ultimatum to Iran, with the latest deadline late on April 6, while adding threats to strike desalination plants, and he has deployed about 7,000 Marines, paratroopers, and special forces with more likely to come, even as officials earlier said there were only four to five weeks of strike targets. Domestic support has weakened as well: on March 30, a Reuters/YouGov-linked poll showed 62% Republican support, an 11-point drop from two weeks earlier (roughly 73%).
Economic and military indicators point toward further escalation risk. Hormuz traffic is now about six ships a day, down from 125 before the war, and despite possible U.S.-Iran negotiations via Pakistan, U.S. force-planning still includes ground options such as seizing Kharg Island or HEU stockpiles. Iran’s leverage is eroding after March 27 strikes on steel plants (at least one shut down), threatening an annual steel sector of almost $7bn. If no limited deal emerges—likely reopening the strait with constrained nuclear steps and major sanctions relief—the war is set to prolong, while opinion is souring: 55% of Americans believe Israel benefits more from it than their own country at 30%, a 25-point gap.
Source: The war in Iran is nearing a crossroads
Subtitle: With a Trump-imposed deadline looming, a relative lull in the fighting cannot last much longer
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 03:21 上午 | RIYADH