在过去一周,Tehran 的抗议升级:38 岁的 Fatemeh 夜间在窗边与街头人群呼喊「Death to the dictator」,目标指向 86 岁的 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei。海外 activists 估计死亡人数介于「数百到数千」;官方未公布总数。城市多地传出公车、mosques、警局被焚的叙述,并伴随大范围 internet blackout,使资讯外流与核实更困难。
抗议起于「上月下旬」Tehran 商家对经济困境与治理失能的不满,随后扩散全国。规模在 Thursday 与 Friday 夜间达到高峰,出现「数千」人上街;冲突中有人攻击安全部队与警局,军警以棍棒、tear gas、pellet bullets 与实弹驱散。白天街面部分恢复,但 hospitals 满载、家属被警告勿让年轻人外出;Monday 亦有「数万」政权支持者集会。五天网路封锁期间仅保留有限国内通讯;截至 Tuesday evening(Iran 时区 UTC+3:30;折算 UTC+8 为加 4 小时 30 分)对外连线仍多被切断,部分影像改由被禁的 Starlink 外传。
当局承认货币崩跌与通膨引发不满,同时指控骚乱遭以色列 agents 与 Mujahedin-e Khalq(MEK)等势力「劫持」。Ali Larijani 将其描述为以色列 6 月「12 天」战争的第二阶段;该战事据官员称造成「数十名」高阶指挥官与核科学家死亡,并有「超过 1,000 名」平民丧生。Donald Trump 的「以武力救援」警告与 White House 考虑空袭的讯号,被部分分析人士视为提升上街动能;但抗议缺乏明确领导,部分人转向聆听 65 岁、流亡美国的 Reza Pahlavi,亦有人认为外部打击反而会促使社会「旗帜效应」而凝聚于政权。
Over the past week, protests in Tehran escalated: 38-year-old Fatemeh chants “Death to the dictator” from her window with street crowds, targeting 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Activists abroad estimate deaths from “hundreds to thousands”; the state provides no total. Accounts describe burned buses, mosques, and police stations, alongside a broad internet blackout that blocks leakage and verification.
The unrest began “late last month” with Tehran shopkeepers protesting economic distress and mismanagement, then spread nationwide. It peaked on Thursday and Friday nights with “thousands” in the streets; some attacked security forces and stations, and forces responded with batons, tear gas, pellet bullets, and live ammunition. Daytime activity partially resumed, but hospitals are full and families are warned to keep youth inside; on Monday “tens of thousands” of regime supporters rallied. During a five-day blackout only limited domestic calling persisted; as of Tuesday evening (Iran UTC+3:30; UTC+8 is +4 h 30 m) most external access remained cut, with some footage leaked via banned Starlink.
Authorities acknowledge currency collapse and inflation grievances while claiming the unrest was hijacked by Israeli agents and groups such as Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK). Ali Larijani frames it as a second phase after Israel’s 12-day June war, which officials say killed “dozens” of senior commanders and nuclear scientists plus “more than 1,000” civilians. Donald Trump’s warnings to use force and the White House’s air-strike consideration are seen by some as adding momentum, yet the protests lack clear leadership; some rally around 65-year-old Washington-based exile Reza Pahlavi, while others argue external attack would instead unify society around the regime.