三十年来，日本物价几乎停滞不前，涨价极为罕见，以至于2016年一家企业因将一款畅销冰淇淋涨价10日元（约0.06美元）而公开道歉。这种长期低通胀甚至通缩的环境塑造了企业定价、消费者预期和政策框架，使价格稳定成为常态而非目标。

这种局面已经逆转。日本核心通胀指标已连续44个月高于日本央行2%的目标，日元贬值至上世纪90年代初以来的低位。日本央行曾多年将利率维持在极低水平，甚至一度进入负利率区间，以刺激通胀。但当前通胀并未形成“工资上涨—消费扩张”的良性循环，实际工资自去年年初以来持续负增长，削弱了家庭购买力。

通胀上行正在重塑政治格局。生活成本飙升引发选民不满，执政的自民党在最近一次全国性选举中遭遇挫折。首相高市早苗正考虑最早于下个月解散国会、提前举行大选，以争取重新获得议会多数。如何在持续通胀、疲弱工资和汇率贬值并存的环境下稳定经济，将不仅决定日本经济走向，也将直接影响其政治前景。

For three decades, Japan’s prices were largely immovable, with increases so rare that in 2016 a company apologized for raising the price of a popular ice cream by 10 yen, or about $0.06. This prolonged period of low inflation and deflation shaped corporate pricing, consumer expectations, and policy thinking, making price stability the norm rather than a policy objective.

That era has ended. Japan’s key inflation gauge has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 44 consecutive months, while the yen has weakened to levels last seen in the early 1990s. The central bank spent years holding interest rates extremely low, at times below zero, to generate inflation. Yet today’s price increases have not produced a virtuous cycle of higher wages and consumption, with real wage growth remaining negative since the start of last year.

Rising inflation is now reshaping politics. Voter frustration over the soaring cost of living contributed to setbacks for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the most recent national elections. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering calling a snap election as early as next month to try to regain a parliamentary majority. How her government manages persistent inflation alongside weak wages and a soft currency will influence not only Japan’s economic trajectory but also her own political fortunes.