在长达两周的“打倒独裁者”呼喊之后，携带自动步枪、与革命卫队结盟的民兵骑着成群摩托车进入街头，并在狙击手配合下射杀同胞，医院停尸间不堪重负；可能已有数千人死亡，而成千上万名伤者被逮捕，甚至有人从病床被拖到牢房。镇压的规模与残酷程度，正把抗议从街头动员推向高伤亡与高恐惧的循环。
神权统治已持续47年，在国内伴随经济萎缩、食品价格快速上涨、失业与贫困加剧；在国外，其在黎巴嫩、叙利亚和加沙的代理力量自2023年以来多被以色列打击致残或摧毁，而去年的12天战争显示其甚至无法保护自己的指挥官与核设施。政府本月提出每月7美元的普遍补贴以平息怒火，却遭到嘲讽，凸显其可提供的物质让步之低与合法性流失之深。
前景从政权继续维系、到分裂、甚至崩塌皆有可能，而南斯拉夫在1990年代的解体、2003年对伊拉克的入侵以及叙利亚内战都表明，终结数十年压迫常伴随大规模流血，尤其在存在浓缩铀、核科学家与宗教极端分子的情况下风险更高。美国在特朗普领导下的选项包括有限打击或通信支持等较低风险手段，但伊朗的短程与远程导弹能力使升级难以预测；与此同时，美伊对抗已持续四十多年，流亡的礼萨·巴列维自1979年出走后在马里兰远程呼吁变革。
After two weeks of “death to the dictator” chants, militiamen allied with the Revolutionary Guards rode in on swarms of motorbikes with automatic rifles and, alongside snipers, shot fellow citizens, leaving morgues overflowing; several thousand may be dead, while thousands of wounded have been arrested, including people dragged from hospital beds to prison cells. The scale and brutality of the crackdown pushes the protest cycle toward higher casualties and fear.
The theocracy has held power for 47 years amid a shrinking economy, rapidly rising food prices, joblessness, and worsening poverty; abroad, its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza have been battered or destroyed, mostly by Israel, since 2023, and last year’s 12-day war showed it could not protect even its commanders and nuclear sites. This month the government proposed a general stipend worth $7 a month to buy off anger, and it was met with derision, underscoring thin material concessions and collapsing legitimacy.
Outcomes range from regime survival to fragmentation or collapse, and the break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and Syria’s civil war show how often ending decades of repression triggers mass bloodshed, especially with enriched uranium, nuclear scientists, and religious extremists in play. Under Donald Trump, American options include a limited strike or lower-risk communications support, but Iran’s short- and long-range missiles make escalation unpredictable; the confrontation has run for over four decades, while exiled Reza Pahlavi has urged change from Maryland after fleeing in 1979.
Source: What the collapse of Iran’s regime would mea
Subtitle: Thousands have died and America has threatened to strike back against the horror there
Dateline: 1月 15, 2026 07:52 上午