在美国封锁持续数周后，委内瑞拉储油设施几乎满仓、产量被迫收缩，石油美元断流令其面临新一轮货币危机；如今唐纳德·特朗普强加的协议意味着原油将再次外流，收入将很快涌入一个由美国控制的托管账户。最大的变化集中在石油现金流的恢复与其去向的外部管控上。

该协议赋予美国对委内瑞拉石油销售的控制权；一项行政命令把这笔钱定性为“由美国代为保管的委内瑞拉政府主权财产”，并由国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥据称决定如何代表委内瑞拉支出。透明度被视为关键，以避免重演1995至2003年伊拉克联合国“以油换粮”计划中长期存在的腐败模式。

民意数据更直接：一项由《经济学人》委托的新民调称，十分之九的人希望2024年被政权窃取的选举结果现在得到尊重，或在一年内重新投票。特朗普原定于1月15日会见反对派领袖玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多，文章主张将石油安排与明确的民主过渡时间表绑定，以提升法治与产权可信度并降低“脏钱”维系统治的空间。

After weeks of an American blockade, Venezuela’s storage was almost full and production was curbed, while a renewed currency crisis loomed as petrodollars dried up; a Trump-imposed deal now means oil should flow again, with earnings soon pouring into a U.S.-controlled escrow account. The biggest shift is the restoration of oil cashflow under external control.

The deal gives America control over Venezuela’s oil sales; an executive order labels the money “sovereign property of the Government of Venezuela held in custody by the United States,” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly to decide how to spend it on Venezuela’s behalf. Transparency is framed as vital to avoid graft reminiscent of the UN’s Iraq oil-for-food programme from 1995 to 2003.

Public opinion is quantified more starkly: a new Economist-commissioned poll says nine in ten want the results of a 2024 election stolen by the regime to be respected now, or a fresh vote within a year. Trump was due to meet opposition leader María Corina Machado on January 15, and the argument is to tie oil control to a clear timetable for democratic transition to bolster courts, property rights, and investor confidence while constraining “dirty cash” politics.

Source: Without democracy, Donald Trump’s Venezuelan oil quest will fail

Subtitle: Sidelining the democratic opposition and its leader, María Corina Machado, would be a mistake

Dateline: 1月 15, 2026 07:52 上午