人口成长速度是争议核心：过去10年瑞士人口约增10%，明显快于欧盟同期「低于2%」。成长主因是移民；自然增长（出生减死亡）仅约占总增长的十分之一。2023年增幅特别高，部分因首次把乌克兰难民纳入统计。
支持度数据显示阵营僵持：11月下旬民调（12月7日公布）显示48%倾向支持或已决定支持，41%反对，11%未决。若人口在2050年前超过950万即启动多步骤措施；官方预测约5年内逼近门槛，并在2035年前后跨越。若超过1,000万，可能退出被视为「推升人口」的国际条约；两年后仍未回落，可能退出与欧盟的自由流动协定，牵动现有150万在瑞士的欧盟公民居留权，以及瑞士逾40%出口所依赖的欧盟市场准入；商界并警告到2040年恐短缺43万名劳工需靠移民补足。
Switzerland is weighing a constitutional population cap that could ultimately restrict new arrivals if residents rise from about 9 million to above 10 million, with limited distinction among refugees, skilled workers, and high earners. A nationwide vote is expected next year, and polls suggest a meaningful chance of approval despite government opposition.
Population growth is the pressure point: Switzerland grew by roughly 10% over the past decade, far faster than the European Union’s under-2% increase. Migration is the main driver, while natural change (births minus deaths) accounts for only about one-tenth of the rise; 2023 was unusually high as statistics first included refugees from Ukraine.
Polling shows a tight split: 48% are inclined to support or have decided to support the cap, 41% oppose it, and 11% are undecided. The proposal would trigger steps if the population exceeds 9.5 million before 2050; forecasts put Switzerland near that level in about five years and above it by 2035. If the country crosses 10 million, it could withdraw from “population-driving” treaties and, if still above the line two years later, quit the EU free-movement accord—potentially affecting the residence rights of about 1.5 million EU citizens in Switzerland and risking trade disruption given the EU takes over 40% of Swiss exports. Business groups also warn of an expected 430,000-worker shortfall by 2040 that they say cannot be filled without immigration.
