上世纪九十年代末至二十一世纪初，中国前总理朱镕基以「抓大放小」为口号，对国有企业进行大规模改革，关闭了数千座矿山、钢铁厂和其他工业设施，导致约三千万至四千万工人失业。这一过程虽然痛苦，却被视为中国加入世贸组织和摆脱对不经济产业支持的必要之举。（关键数字：1990, 2000, 30, 40）

数十年后，产能过剩问题再度困扰中国这个全球最大制造业基地。亏损工业企业的占比从2010年的约10%跃升至去年的近25%，涵盖钢铁、水泥、汽车、晶片和机器人等各行各业。以汽车业为例，去年国内销量为2390万辆，而产能估计高达4500万至5000万辆；电动车市场中，十大品牌占据超过七成销量，其余47个品牌争夺剩余份额。

面对产能过剩，北京一方面推动「反内卷」运动以稳定价格，另一方面积极拓展海外市场——2026年前五个月中国汽车出口同比激增超过60%。然而，出口并非长久之计，保护主义抬头之下，中国企业也在全球各地建厂。分析人士警告，北京需在未来18个月内正视这一问题，但目前习近平身边似乎缺乏一位如朱镕基般推动大刀阔斧改革的人物。

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji launched sweeping reforms of state-owned enterprises under the slogan "grasp the large, let go of the small," shutting thousands of mines, steel mills, and factories and displacing an estimated 30 to 40 million workers. Though painful, the restructuring was considered essential for China's WTO accession in 2001 and for freeing the government from subsidizing uneconomic industries.

Decades later, industrial overcapacity has re-emerged as a critical challenge for China, the world's largest manufacturing base. The share of loss-making industrial firms nearly doubled from about 10 percent in 2010 to nearly 25 percent last year, spanning sectors from steel and cement to cars, chips, and robots. The automotive sector exemplifies the problem: domestic sales of 23.9 million cars last year stood against an estimated production capacity of 45 to 50 million, with sales heavily concentrated among a handful of leading brands while dozens of smaller competitors fight over thin margins.

Beijing is responding on multiple fronts—an "anti-involution" campaign to curb destructive domestic competition, encouragement of industry consolidation echoing Zhu's earlier reforms, and an aggressive export push that saw Chinese auto exports surge over 60 percent year-on-year in early 2026. Yet exports alone cannot resolve the overcapacity problem amid rising global protectionism, and Chinese firms are building factories worldwide as a hedge. Analysts warn that a reckoning is imminent within 18 months, but unlike the Zhu Rongji era, there appears to be no comparable reformist figure near President Xi Jinping willing to champion the drastic restructuring many believe is necessary.