抛售在周二因 Anthropic 针对企业内部律师推出生产力工具而被放大，连带打击法律软体与出版相关公司：London Stock Exchange Group Plc 下跌 13%，Thomson Reuters Corp. 大跌 16%，CS Disco Inc. 下跌 12%，Legalzoom.com Inc. 下跌 20%。更早之前，Anthropic 于 2026 年 1 月推出 Claude Cowork 工具加速了「被 AI 取代」的叙事；Alphabet Inc. 推出 Project Genie 也把游戏股卷入跌势。S&P North American software index 连跌 3 周，并在 1 月下跌 15%，为 2008 年 10 月以来最大单月跌幅。
压力已扩散至私募与公开市场。私募机构据称聘请顾问盘点曝险；Apollo 在 2025 年把直贷基金的软体曝险「几乎砍半」，从年初约 20% 降低。财报季中，S&P 500 软体公司仅 67% 的营收优于预期，低于整体科技的 83%；即使获利普遍优于预期，市场仍以长期前景为主。Microsoft Corp. 因云端成长放缓与 AI 支出焦点而在某周四重挫 10%，周二再跌 2.9%（连 4 日收黑），但也被视为估值偏低：预估本益比低于 23 倍、约 3 年低点，14 日 RSI 处于超卖；同时 Sycomore Sustainable Tech fund（3 年表现胜过 99% 同侪）逢低买入。相对地，Palantir Technologies Inc. 给出强劲的 2026 财年营收展望，第四季营收成长 70%，股价上涨 6.9%。Piper Sandler 亦以「seat-compression」与「vibe coding」可能压抑估值倍数为由，下调 Adobe Inc.、Freshworks Inc.、Vertex Inc. 评级；技术派认为或有反弹，但修复需要时间，关键在于辨识 AI 的赢家与输家。
Wall Street’s skepticism toward software has shifted from bearish to near-panic, with trading described as price-insensitive “get me out” selling. Jeffrey Favuzza at Jefferies labels the dynamic a “SaaSpocalypse,” driven by fears that artificial intelligence (AI) erodes competitive moats, intensifies competition and pricing pressure, and widens the distribution of growth outcomes, making valuation anchors harder to defend.
The selloff intensified on Tuesday after Anthropic released a productivity tool aimed at in-house lawyers, hitting legal software and publishing-linked names: London Stock Exchange Group Plc fell 13%, Thomson Reuters Corp. plunged 16%, CS Disco Inc. sank 12%, and Legalzoom.com Inc. dropped 20%. Earlier, Anthropic’s January 2026 Claude Cowork release amplified disruption anxiety, and Alphabet Inc.’s Project Genie pulled video-game stocks into the downdraft. The S&P North American software index is on a three-week losing streak and fell 15% in January, its biggest monthly decline since October 2008.
Pressure is spreading across private equity and public markets. Private equity firms are reportedly stress-testing portfolios; Apollo cut software exposure in its direct lending funds almost in half in 2025, from about 20% at the start of the year. In earnings season, only 67% of S&P 500 software companies beat revenue expectations versus 83% for the broader tech sector; earnings beats have mattered little against long-term uncertainty. Microsoft Corp. fell 10% on a Thursday amid scrutiny of cloud growth and AI spending, then slid 2.9% Tuesday for a fourth straight down session, yet is cited as potentially cheap at under 23x estimated earnings (about a three-year low) with a 14-day RSI in oversold territory; Sycomore Sustainable Tech fund, which beat 99% of peers over three years, bought Microsoft in the dip. In contrast, Palantir Technologies Inc. posted 70% fourth-quarter revenue growth, issued an upbeat fiscal 2026 revenue outlook, and rose 6.9%. Piper Sandler downgraded Adobe Inc., Freshworks Inc., and Vertex Inc., warning “seat-compression” and “vibe coding” could cap multiples; technicians see a possible bounce, but rebuilding a durable base depends on separating AI winners from losers.