伯克希尔·哈撒韦与软银集团都具备“经营型集团+投资基金”双重属性，但逻辑却截然相反：伯克希尔已累积近400亿美元现金并等待合适买入时机，而软银现金有限却持续举债追逐人工智能投资。伯克希尔现金已约占其市值的40%，约为过去二十年平均值的两倍，同时其在日本最活跃的投资组合达450亿美元，并在加仓硅谷高风险赛道前开始处置英伟达的最后持仓。
在伯克希尔的长期谨慎路径下，近年几乎不回购股票、也自1967年起未派发股息，过去一年其股价较大盘落后约40个百分点，接近1999年的程度。相比之下，软银的曲折之路得到部分修复：其2016年以310亿美元购入的Arm现值约2,500亿美元，软银持有87%，并计划在10月前后把对OpenAI的投资提高到650亿美元，并每年追加30亿美元。
软银又追加了50亿美元至ABB机器人业务、40亿美元至DigitalBridge，债务上升背景下违约风险随之抬升。用于OpenAI的400亿美元过桥贷款将于明年3月到期，公开披露的融资还包括以Arm与日本通信资产抵押的280亿美元，管理层据称还在寻求再借100亿美元对冲OpenAI股份，由此若Arm估值下滑或OpenAI未能上市，软银爆发流动性危机的风险明显高于伯克希尔通常较慢的解体风险。
Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank Group are both hybrid conglomerate-investment firms led by iconic founders, but their operating logic is inverted: Berkshire has amassed nearly US$400 billion in cash while waiting for bargain opportunities, whereas SoftBank has little cash and repeatedly borrows to chase AI investments. Berkshire’s cash now equals about 40% of its market value, roughly double its average over the past twenty years, while its Japanese exposure is now about US$45 billion even as it has begun selling legacy positions like its last Nvidia stake before pressing ahead in Silicon Valley.
Under Berkshire’s long period of caution, buybacks have been minimal and no dividend has been paid since 1967, and its shares have lagged the broader market by about 40 percentage points in the past year, close to the 1999 gap. SoftBank’s rough ride has been partly offset by Arm: the stake bought for US$31 billion in 2016 is now worth around US$250 billion, with SoftBank holding 87%, and SoftBank is also adding to its AI push with a planned US$65 billion commitment to OpenAI by October plus US$3 billion of annual spending.
SoftBank has additionally pledged US$5 billion to ABB’s robotics unit and US$4 billion to DigitalBridge, while default risk has risen as debt burden increases. The US$40 billion bridge loan for OpenAI matures next March, and disclosed borrowing already includes an extra US$28 billion secured against Arm and telecom assets; management is also reportedly seeking another US$10 billion against OpenAI shares, making a liquidity crisis far more likely if Arm falls in value or OpenAI fails to list, compared with Berkshire’s typically slow unwind process.
Source: Only one of Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank can survive
Subtitle: The two represent competing visions of the future
Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 08:14 上午