2025年末，中国干旱的北方经历了异常频繁且强烈的降雨。呼和浩特年降水量接近800毫米，北京部分气象站超过1,000毫米，约为常年值的近两倍。华北汛期7月5日提前开始，9月2日结束，持续时间比常年长约一个月，降水总量和持续时间均创历史纪录。北方和东北洪灾在7月和8月分别造成144人和73人死亡或失踪。前三季度，全国洪灾影响2,270万人，404人死亡或失踪，直接经济损失1,650亿元，其中北方占315人和980亿元。

数据推动了关于“雨带北移”的讨论。2025年呼和浩特年降水777毫米，几乎是长期均值的两倍，超过1961年637.8毫米的纪录；内蒙古全年453毫米，为历史第二高。国家气候中心指出，自2010年前后起北方趋湿，但2025年夏季主雨带北推至内蒙古属前所未有。分歧在于这是20至30年的气候周期波动，还是全球变暖引发的长期转变。升温每增加1℃，大气可多容纳约7%的水汽，使北移的季风系统降水更极端。

机制上，2025年异常偏北、偏强的西太平洋副热带高压像“泵”一样向北输送水汽。副高在变暖背景下增强并向高纬扩展，重塑降水分布。北方约20条河流夏季溃决，而南方承压于干旱：2022年长江流域遭遇1961年以来最严重干旱，2024年秋季上游来水9月、10月分别低于常年45%和31%。雨带北移可能缓解水粮错配，但极端性增加、时序错配加剧洪涝与农业风险，预示北方进入旱涝并存的更高波动阶段。

In late 2025, China’s arid north experienced unusually frequent and intense rainfall. Annual precipitation neared 800 millimeters in Hohhot, while parts of Beijing exceeded 1,000 millimeters, nearly double typical levels. North China’s flood season began on July 5 and ended on Sept. 2, about a month longer than normal, setting records for both duration and totals. Floods in July and August killed or left missing 144 and 73 people, respectively. In the first three quarters, floods affected 22.7 million people nationwide, with 404 dead or missing and 165 billion yuan in losses, of which the north accounted for 315 deaths and 98 billion yuan.

The figures intensified debate over a “northward shift of the rain belt.” Hohhot logged 777 millimeters in 2025, nearly twice its long-term average and above the 1961 record of 637.8 millimeters; Inner Mongolia averaged 453 millimeters, the second-highest on record. The National Climate Center noted a wetter north since around 2010, but said the main summer rain belt reaching Inner Mongolia in 2025 was unprecedented. The divide is whether this reflects a 20–30 year climate cycle or a long-term warming-driven shift. Each 1 C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold about 7% more moisture, amplifying rainfall when monsoon systems move north.

Mechanistically, an unusually strong, northward West Pacific subtropical high in 2025 acted like a pump, pushing moisture into typically dry regions. Warming tends to intensify and expand such systems poleward, reshaping precipitation. Nearly 20 northern rivers overtopped their banks in summer, while the south faced drought: the Yangtze basin suffered its worst drought since 1961 in 2022, and in 2024 autumn inflows were 45% and 31% below normal in September and October. A northward rain belt may ease water–grain mismatches, but rising extremes and mistimed rains heighten flood and agricultural risks, signaling a more volatile drought–flood regime in the north.