记忆体晶片产业长期呈现强烈周期性：供需稍一失衡就可能出现过剩，价格跌破成本。NAND（储存）与DRAM（运算环境）几乎遍及资料中心、智慧手机、车用与家电，但因可互相替代、需求短期波动大、建厂耗时且昂贵，行业被迫走向高度集中，如今主要玩家仅剩约4家。
近两年景气看似「变了」：AI算力投资爆发带来复合拉动——资料量暴增推升需求，高速介面等高阶产品单价更高且制程更难，产线被更高价的AI相关记忆体占用，反过来压缩手机与笔电用记忆体供给，使价格维持在高档。2024年12月上市后，专注NAND的Kioxia股价上涨超过6倍；SK海力士与美光营收、市值创新高，三星在2025年也出现反弹。
市场情绪偏多但风险仍在：美光股价今年已「超过3倍」后，仍有约88%分析师建议买入；SK海力士同样获得更高推荐度。供给端的关键变数是三星——过去自1990年代起主导并常以扩产改写景气，但此次因技术问题反应偏慢。若从零建厂通常需超过1年，则在AI需求不崩的前提下，2026年之前出现全面性供过于求的机率较低；但也要记得2023年SK海力士与美光合计净损仍超过100亿美元，翻转可很快。
The memory-chip business is notoriously cyclical: small demand swings plus long, costly fab buildouts can flip the market from shortage to oversupply, pushing prices below production cost. NAND (storage) and DRAM (the working environment for advanced processors) are widely used from data centers to smartphones, cars, and home electronics, yet their substitutability makes them commodity-like. That dynamic has helped shrink the field to about four major producers.
Recent performance looks unusually strong, largely tied to AI spending. AI workloads require far more data, faster access to that data, and pricier high-speed interfaces; those harder-to-make parts also consume more production capacity, indirectly constraining supply for phone and laptop memory and keeping pricing firm. Since listing in December 2024, NAND-focused Kioxia’s stock has risen more than sixfold, while SK Hynix and Micron hit record revenue and market-value levels, and Samsung’s growth rebounded in 2025.
Sentiment is heavily bullish despite big gains: about 88% of analysts still rate Micron a buy even after the stock more than tripled this year, with SK Hynix also a recommendation favorite. The main supply-side swing factor is Samsung, which has led since the 1990s but has been slower this cycle due to technical issues; without its usual rapid expansion, prices stay higher. With greenfield fabs typically taking over a year, 2026 may avoid a broad glut unless AI demand collapses—yet the 2023 combined net loss for SK Hynix and Micron exceeded $10 billion, showing how fast fortunes can reverse.