在中东战争中，数以万计的炸弹被投下，已致约1,500名平民死亡，尽管这只是背景，胡塞在3月28日发射的第一枚向以色列导弹（自伊朗战争爆发以来）却可能开启新战线，并带来重大全球经济后果。若胡塞在霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭的情况下瞄准红海航运，分析人士认为油价可能逼近每桶200美元，战争经济成本上升到可能迫使美国重新评估参战决心。
胡塞在3月27日发布威胁直接介入的声明后，虽又发射更多导弹，但至今仍未动用其最强筹码——大规模破坏红海航运。沙特目前通过红海沿岸的亚努布湾每日电力出口5百万桶，较战争前1.6百万桶/日明显上升；若在霍尔木兹关闭的同时进一步封锁过往船只或瞄准亚努布湾管网和设施，部分分析师预计油价可能进一步接近每桶200美元。
胡塞此前在伊朗“抵抗轴”框架内保持克制，既受未打破事实停火和希望与沙特谈判的驱动，也与沙特不愿大规模卷入有关；但该平衡正在改变，因伊朗持续攻击海湾能源与交通设施、海湾国家军事介入上升（如3月27日阿联酋提出多国护航计划）、以及美国在萨拉拉、吉布提、塔伊夫等地的军力增强。更关键的是胡塞财政恶化：公务员长期拖欠薪资、约1800万也门人面临严重饥荒、沙特拨款和人道援助持续受压、与海上税收相关收入消失；即便军备受损，仅需少量打击就能推高保险费并迫使船舶绕行，若其恢复红海袭扰，后果将远超也门本身。
In the Middle East war, tens of thousands of bombs have been dropped and about 1,500 civilians have been killed, yet the Houthi launch on March 28 toward Israel—the first since the Iran war began—could still open a new front with major global economic consequences. If the Houthis were to hit Red Sea shipping while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, analysts say oil could move close to $200 per barrel, potentially raising war costs enough for the U.S. to reconsider participation.
After a March 27 communiqué threatening direct intervention, the Houthis fired additional missiles, but have not yet used their strongest lever: large-scale disruption of shipping in the Red Sea. Saudi exports through the Yanbu terminal are now about 5 million barrels per day, up from 1.6 million b/d before the war, and if ships and infrastructure at Yanbu were also targeted while Hormuz remains closed, oil could rise further toward $200 a barrel.
The Houthis had largely held back earlier, balancing self-interest in a de facto ceasefire and hopes of negotiations with Saudi Arabia, but that posture is shifting under three pressures: Iranian attacks that are pulling the Gulf deeper into conflict, more assertive Gulf military posture (including the UAE’s multinational naval-force plan), and a severe financial squeeze on the Houthis. Civil servants remain unpaid for months, around 18 million Yemenis face acute hunger, Saudi payments and aid channels have shrunk, maritime tax income has disappeared, and even a small number of strikes could make insurance and rerouting costs make the Red Sea effectively impassable, with effects spreading far beyond Yemen.
Source: The Houthis’ attack on Israel may point to escalation in the Iran war
Subtitle: Yemen’s Shia militia could threaten to choke the Red Sea
Dateline: 4月 02, 2026 01:10 上午