内塔尼亚胡对特朗普仍有一个明显优势：大多数以色列人仍支持这场战争。战争第四周，68%的人表示美国和以色列应继续作战，这一比例从战争开始时的81%下降，为他提供了政治空间，尽管民调显示在10月选举前他的联盟陷入困境。
3月30日，议会通过了年度国家预算——这是选举前罕见的——预算通过得益于对宗教社群和西岸定居者的定向拨款，有助于他很可能完成完整的四年议会任期。尽管如此，多数民调仍将联盟评为仅有120个席位中的52或53席，盟友中极端宗教党因坚持年轻男性免除兵役而遭严重不受欢迎，他的盟友“宗教锡安主义”党还被预测会跌破3.25%的选举门槛。
利库德的上升太小，无法确保政府重返权力，反对派依旧碎片化：六个在位反对党和至少三支将参选的新党都在努力围绕一个总理候选人联合。拉皮德已下滑，甘茨已跌出门槛，前首相贝尼特利虽上升却被艾森科特蚕食；即使这些对手最终联合，意识形态差异从民族主义、保守伊斯兰主义到阿拉伯共产主义也会使稳定组阁困难，因此只有一场让伊朗政权坐实的持久僵局才可能显著打击内塔尼亚胡，而特朗普则可在有利时机宣布胜利。
Netanyahu still has one clear edge over co-belligerent Trump: most Israelis still support the war. In the war’s fourth week, 68% said America and Israel should keep fighting, down from 81% at the war’s start, giving him political room despite polls showing his coalition in trouble ahead of the October election.
On March 30 the Knesset passed the annual state budget—rare before an election—and the passage was secured by targeted allocations to religious communities and West Bank settlers, helping him likely complete the full four-year parliamentary term. Yet most polls still place the coalition at only 52 or 53 of 120 seats, allies deeply unpopular over demands for religious service exemptions, and his ally the Religious Zionism party at risk of dropping below the 3.25% threshold.
Likud’s rise is too small to secure a return to power, and the opposition remains fragmented: six current opposition parties plus at least three likely challengers struggle to unite around one prime-minister candidate. Lapid has faded, Gantz has fallen below the threshold, and Bennett’s rise is being chipped away by Eisenkot; even if these rivals unite, ideological gaps from nationalism to conservative Islamism and Arab communism make stable coalition-making difficult, so only a war stalemate that entrenches Iran’s regime seems able to significantly damage Netanyahu, while Trump can still declare victory when it suits him.
Source: Binyamin Netanyahu is down—but not out
Subtitle: Ahead of an election due in October, a divided opposition and the war could hand him a lifeline
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 03:22 上午 | JERUSALEM