2025年的较量凸显了中国的产业“卡脖子”优势：其在全球制造业增加值中的份额超过三分之一，并在太阳能板、风力涡轮机和电动汽车等绿色技术的材料、部件与成品上供应了60–80%。澳大利亚战略政策研究所本月的统计显示，中国以关键科学论文份额衡量在74个领域中的66个领先；同时，中国药企开展的临床试验数量已几乎与美国同行相当且速度更快，稀土出口限制也将依赖性转化为筹码。
与之相对，美国的应对被描述为自损：双边关税未能形成联盟式围堵，反而以关税疏远盟友，并通过取消资助与扣留对不喜欢机构的“数十亿美元”资金来压制科研。对外籍科学家（尤其是华裔）的敌意叠加更广泛的移民收紧，可能促使人才离开或不再赴美，从而在短期内把优势进一步推向中国。
长期风险更多在中国国内：11月出厂价同比下降2.2%，且已连续38个月下滑，二手房价格较峰值低逾20%且仍在下跌，而政策仍倾向加码战略制造业并加深过剩。到2026年底这可能更像一场“失去的几十年”，并且在习近平为2027年开启第四个任期做准备之际纠偏空间有限；与此同时，美国将在明年夏天迎来《独立宣言》发表250周年，这被视为检验其能否凭借开放与创新动能实现复兴的节点。
The 2025 clash highlights China’s industrial chokeholds: its share of global manufacturing value added exceeds one-third, and it supplies 60–80% of the materials, components, and finished goods for green technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. ASPI’s findings this month say China leads in 66 of 74 research fields by share of key scientific papers; meanwhile its drug firms run nearly as many clinical trials as America’s and do them faster, and rare-earth export restrictions turn dependency into leverage.
By contrast, America’s response is depicted as self-defeating: bilateral tariffs fail to build a coordinated encirclement and instead alienate allies, while attacks on science cancel grants and withhold billions of dollars from disfavored institutions. Hostility toward foreign scientists (especially ethnic Chinese) alongside a broader assault on immigration may drive talent away or deter arrivals, tilting the short-run balance further toward China.
Long-run risk sits more with China at home: factory-gate prices were 2.2% lower year on year in November and have fallen for 38 straight months, and secondary-market property prices are more than 20% below their peak and still dropping, even as policy doubles down on strategic manufacturing and overcapacity. By end-2026 that could resemble a “lost decades” stagnation with limited course-correction as Xi prepares a fourth term in 2027; meanwhile America faces the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence next summer as a test of whether openness and innovation can renew its edge.
Source: China proved its strengths in 2025—and Donald Trump helped
Subtitle: It was a good year for Xi Jinping
Dateline: 12月 18, 2025 08:14 上午