即使停火仍在，加沙人现在更害怕冬季天气而不是以色列战机：12月上旬的冬季风暴淹没了数千顶帐篷，迫使家庭在刺骨冷水中熬过长夜，至少4名婴儿死于失温。医疗容量也在下滑到危险数字——加沙仅剩74张重症监护病床。
停火协议签署两个月后，协议在字面和现实中都陷入泥沼：第一阶段让大部分战斗停止，而第二阶段要求哈马斯解除武装、新政府接管并重建飞地。特朗普数周来暗示将宣布由“和平委员会”监督战后加沙，但宣布尚未到来，可能要等到2026年初；计划中的维稳任务国际稳定部队（ISF）也无人报名，且自10月在沙姆沙伊赫签署和平计划的峰会后，一些地区官员称几乎未再听到白宫的加沙消息。
与此同时，盟友提出在仍由以色列控制的加沙一半地区建设“规划社区”，每个可容纳数千名巴勒斯坦人，但每个社区只能覆盖加沙人口约1%，更像可被冠名宣传的样板而非规模性重建。第二阶段停滞将延长200万加沙人的困境，并可能推动更多难民越境，因而外部支持者被敦促加速任命与安全安排、清理道路以通行援助、提供更坚固的住所与医疗，并推动允许独立外国媒体进入以提升关注。
Even with a ceasefire, Gazans now fear winter weather more than Israeli jets: an early-December storm flooded thousands of tents, forcing families to stand through frigid nights in icy water, and at least four babies died of hypothermia. Medical capacity is also collapsing toward a stark figure—just 74 intensive-care beds remain in Gaza.
Two months after the deal was signed, it is sinking into the mud literally and politically: phase one halted most fighting, while phase two demands Hamas disarm, a new government take over, and the enclave be rebuilt. After weeks of hints about a “board of peace,” announcements have not come and may wait until early 2026; no one has signed up for the planned International Stabilisation Force, and since the October summit in Sharm el-Sheikh where the plan was signed, some regional officials say they have scarcely heard from the White House about Gaza.
Allies are instead floating “planned communities” in the half of Gaza still under Israeli control, each housing several thousand Palestinians, yet each would cover only about 1% of Gaza’s population—more a showcase than reconstruction at scale. With phase two stalled, misery for 2m Gazans is prolonged and refugee pressure on Egypt could rise, so backers are urged to move faster on appointments and security, clear roads for aid, deliver sturdier shelter and medical care, and allow independent foreign media access to restore attention.
Source: Two months in, the Gaza ceasefire is floundering
Subtitle: The consequences will ripple beyond the Middle East
Dateline: 12月 18, 2025 05:44 上午