截至 2026 年 2 月 13 日(1:00 PM GMT+8),约 50 个国家的领导人、外交官与军方官员在慕尼黑安全会议(Munich Security Conference)再度聚首;主办方形容世界正「走向毁灭」,因为在 Donald Trump 总统领导下的美国,正以「推土机、破坏球与链锯」对所谓的以规则为基础的秩序(rules-based order)动手。
文章主张,美国战略已从把俄罗斯与中国视为主要对手,转向更像把它们当作伙伴来共同瓜分影响力;这使得乌克兰与欧洲在面对俄罗斯侵略时,获得的美国实质支持大幅减少,而中国则准备与 Trump 进行领导人级峰会。文中提到,1 年前副总统 JD Vance 来到慕尼黑斥责东道主,并释出讯号:欧洲人被视为更像敌人而非朋友;此后这种姿态已在战略文件中被正式化。文章也引用一个半球性的「Donroe Doctrine」,把美国注意力集中在西半球,施压点从格陵兰延伸到委内瑞拉,并谈及古巴可能在年底前成为下一个政权更迭目标。
一些分析人士对 Donroe 感到困惑,称它是对「一堆杂乱冲动」(grab bag)的误导性标签,并强调一个数字上的不对称:即使关注范围扩大,半球内没有任何国家被视为能构成可与其他全球热点相比的可信威胁。参议员 Jeanne Shaheen(参议院外交关系委员会资深成员)表示,Trump 的目标不断变动,「没有清晰战略」,并以伊朗为例称他正考虑在不到 1 年内发动第 2nd 次军事打击;文章最后认为外界对慕尼黑带来清晰讯号的期待很低,唯一的「好消息」是这次 Vance 不会出席。
About 50 countries’ leaders, diplomats, and military officials reconvene at the Munich Security Conference as of February 13, 2026 (1:00 PM GMT+8), with organizers describing a world “under destruction” as the US under President Donald Trump applies “bulldozers, wrecking balls, and chainsaws” to the so-called rules-based order.
The article argues that US strategy has shifted from treating Russia and China as principal adversaries to engaging them more like partners in carving up influence, leaving Ukraine and Europe facing Russia’s aggression with materially less US backing while China prepares leader-level summits with Trump. It notes that 1 year ago Vice President JD Vance came to Munich to berate hosts and signal Europeans are viewed more as foes than friends, and that this posture has since been formalized in strategy documents; it also cites a hemispheric “Donroe Doctrine” that concentrates US attention in the Western Hemisphere, with pressure points spanning Greenland to Venezuela and talk of Cuba as a possible next regime-change target by the end of the year.
Analysts portrayed as puzzled by Donroe call it a misleading label for a “grab bag” of impulses, and emphasize a numeric asymmetry: despite the enlarged focus, no country in the hemisphere is seen as posing a credible threat comparable to other global hotspots. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, ranking member on Senate Foreign Relations, says Trump’s goals keep shifting and that there is “no clear strategy,” pointing to Iran where he is contemplating a 2nd military strike in less than 1 year; the piece concludes expectations for clarity from Munich are low, with the only “good news” being Vance is not attending this time.