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这篇文章探讨了人工智慧在政治、战争与治国理政上日益真实且深远的影响。随著美国成功利用人工智慧在委内瑞拉与伊朗进行军事行动,以及人工智慧模型展现出超人类的网路能力,全球力量平衡正处于关键时刻。虽然美国目前在军事应用与前沿模型上保持领先优势,但其主导地位正面临中国快速追赶的严峻挑战。

美国正遭遇多重战略困境,其中最主要的是「扩散难题」,即中国透过提供成本较低的开源模型,成功将其影响力渗透至全球南方及已开发国家企业。同时,美国旨在限制中国发展的出口管制措施开始松动,国内对于人工智慧安全的担忧引发政治分歧,且民主盟友间的团结也因对美国政策的疑虑而出现裂痕。

为了在未来的人工智慧竞赛中保持优势,美国必须重新调整其战略。这包括强化出口管制以保护运算优势,建立快速通道以协助盟友取得人工智慧基础设施,并在国内制定透明的安全监管政策。作者强调,美国能否维持全球技术霸权,取决于政府是否能克服内部政策混乱,并有效应对这些日益复杂的挑战。

This article explores the increasingly real and profound impact of artificial intelligence on politics, warfare, and statecraft. As the United States successfully utilizes AI for military operations in Venezuela and Iran, and as AI models demonstrate superhuman cyber capabilities, the global balance of power has reached a critical juncture. Although America currently maintains a leading edge in military applications and frontier models, its dominance is facing severe challenges from China's rapid advancements.

The United States is encountering multiple strategic dilemmas, most notably the "diffusion dilemma," where China successfully permeates its influence into the Global South and developed enterprises by offering cost-effective open-weight models. Simultaneously, US export controls aimed at restricting China's development are loosening, domestic anxieties regarding AI safety are sparking political divisions, and democratic allied solidarity is fracturing due to concerns over American policies.

To maintain its supremacy in the future AI race, the United States must recalibrate its strategy. This includes strengthening export controls to protect its computing advantage, establishing fast-track procedures to help allies acquire AI infrastructure, and enacting transparent safety regulations domestically. The author emphasizes that whether America can sustain its global technological hegemony depends on the government's ability to overcome internal policy chaos and effectively address these increasingly complex challenges.

2026-08-03 (Monday) · 8d88f4ab7b3ab597d7814053c8c3c692ac46cf6b