ChatGPT 引發了人工智慧熱潮，但其開發商 OpenAI 與微軟之間具有里程碑意義的合作夥伴關係奠定了其財務基礎。這種模式隨後被雲端運算公司和晶片製造商（尤其是輝達）廣泛複製，他們資助領先的 AI 開發商，而這些開發商反過來又成為他們最大的客戶。這種科技製造商與 AI 新創公司之間日益緊密的相互依賴關係，形成了一種被稱為「循環交易」的投資網路。

這些循環交易雖然在市場繁榮時能像飛輪一樣推動成長，但也隱藏著巨大的風險。如果 AI 產品的需求未能達到目前的極高期望，新創公司將面臨無法負擔的硬體和基礎設施帳單，而投資方不僅會失去主要客戶，其持有的新創公司股份價值也會暴跌。此外，這種模式可能會扭曲市場誘因，鼓勵基於投資關係而非商業合理性做出採購決策，進而放大潛在的損失。

儘管批評者警告這種支出水平與 1990 年代末期網路泡沫破裂前的光纖建設熱潮相似，但 AI 業界領袖仍為這些交易辯護。他們認為，開發先進 AI 模型的成本極其高昂且頂級晶片供應短缺，這種將長期採購承諾與融資相結合的模式，是確保運算資源並推動技術革命的必要手段。

ChatGPT kicked off the artificial intelligence boom, but it was the landmark partnership between its developer OpenAI and Microsoft that laid its financial foundations. This playbook has been widely replicated by cloud computing companies and chipmakers, notably Nvidia, who fund leading AI developers that subsequently become their largest customers. This growing interdependence between technology manufacturers and AI startups has created an investment network known as "circular deals."

While these circular deals can act as a growth flywheel during a market boom, they harbor significant risks. If demand for AI products falls short of current lofty expectations, startups could face untenable infrastructure bills, and investors would not only lose a major customer but also see the value of their stakes plummet. Furthermore, this model can skew market incentives, encouraging procurement decisions based on investment relationships rather than commercial sense, thereby magnifying potential cascading losses.

Despite warnings from critics who liken this level of spending to the fiber-optic buildout preceding the dot-com bust of the late 1990s, AI industry leaders defend these transactions. They argue that because developing advanced AI models is extraordinarily expensive and top-tier chips are in short supply, coupling long-term purchasing commitments with financing is a necessary mechanism to secure computing resources and finance this technological revolution.