ChatGPT 引发了人工智慧热潮，但其开发商 OpenAI 与微软之间具有里程碑意义的合作伙伴关系奠定了其财务基础。这种模式随后被云端运算公司和晶片制造商（尤其是辉达）广泛复制，他们资助领先的 AI 开发商，而这些开发商反过来又成为他们最大的客户。这种科技制造商与 AI 新创公司之间日益紧密的相互依赖关系，形成了一种被称为「循环交易」的投资网路。

这些循环交易虽然在市场繁荣时能像飞轮一样推动成长，但也隐藏著巨大的风险。如果 AI 产品的需求未能达到目前的极高期望，新创公司将面临无法负担的硬体和基础设施帐单，而投资方不仅会失去主要客户，其持有的新创公司股份价值也会暴跌。此外，这种模式可能会扭曲市场诱因，鼓励基于投资关系而非商业合理性做出采购决策，进而放大潜在的损失。

尽管批评者警告这种支出水平与 1990 年代末期网路泡沫破裂前的光纤建设热潮相似，但 AI 业界领袖仍为这些交易辩护。他们认为，开发先进 AI 模型的成本极其高昂且顶级晶片供应短缺，这种将长期采购承诺与融资相结合的模式，是确保运算资源并推动技术革命的必要手段。

ChatGPT kicked off the artificial intelligence boom, but it was the landmark partnership between its developer OpenAI and Microsoft that laid its financial foundations. This playbook has been widely replicated by cloud computing companies and chipmakers, notably Nvidia, who fund leading AI developers that subsequently become their largest customers. This growing interdependence between technology manufacturers and AI startups has created an investment network known as "circular deals."

While these circular deals can act as a growth flywheel during a market boom, they harbor significant risks. If demand for AI products falls short of current lofty expectations, startups could face untenable infrastructure bills, and investors would not only lose a major customer but also see the value of their stakes plummet. Furthermore, this model can skew market incentives, encouraging procurement decisions based on investment relationships rather than commercial sense, thereby magnifying potential cascading losses.

Despite warnings from critics who liken this level of spending to the fiber-optic buildout preceding the dot-com bust of the late 1990s, AI industry leaders defend these transactions. They argue that because developing advanced AI models is extraordinarily expensive and top-tier chips are in short supply, coupling long-term purchasing commitments with financing is a necessary mechanism to secure computing resources and finance this technological revolution.