根據氣候科學家 Zeke Hausfather 的最新分析，太平洋正在發展的聖嬰現象可能是自從有可靠紀錄以來最強烈的一次。氣候模型預測，Niño 3.4 區域的海水溫度可能比正常水平高出攝氏 3.6 度，打破過去的歷史紀錄，並大幅超越先前的極端聖嬰事件。

這種強烈的聖嬰現象不僅會改變全球天氣模式，還會與碳排放導致的全球暖化交互作用，將全球平均氣溫推向新高。預計在未來幾年內，我們將感受到熱浪和極端氣候的全面影響，甚至在 2026 年或 2027 年可能創下破紀錄的高溫，對生態系統（如秘魯的漁業）造成立即衝擊。

除了氣候與生態影響外，這場極端聖嬰現象也將帶來長遠且巨大的經濟損失。研究指出，強烈的聖嬰事件所引發的極端天氣災難可能會大幅削弱全球經濟成長；根據目前的預測，到了 2032 年，全球累積的經濟損失可能高達十兆美元。

According to the latest analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, the El Niño phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean could be the strongest since reliable records began. Climate models forecast that sea temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal levels, shattering historical records and surpassing previous extreme El Niño events by a wide margin.

This intense El Niño will not only alter global weather patterns but also interact with global warming driven by carbon emissions to push global average temperatures to new highs. In the coming years, we will feel the full impact of heatwaves and extreme weather, potentially setting record-breaking temperatures in 2026 or 2027, with immediate impacts on ecosystems such as fisheries in Peru.

In addition to the climate and ecological impacts, this extreme El Niño phenomenon will also bring massive and long-term economic losses. Studies indicate that extreme weather disasters triggered by intense El Niño events can significantly reduce global economic growth; based on current projections, cumulative global economic losses could reach 10 trillion dollars by 2032.