数据显示，固定资产投资年内降幅在扩大：截至10月同比下降1.7%，而截至9月为下降0.5%。由于不公布单月对比，这一累计走势暗示10月当月同比可能骤降约11%。投资长期支撑中国增长，尤其在基建、地产以及高端制造领域，因此这一转弱被视为重要的宏观警讯。
分析师认为下滑原因具有结构性与统计性双重特征。高盛估计约60%的跌幅来自此前高报数据的统计修正，但仍有40%与“反内卷”政策、房地产危机及基建财政支出放缓有关，可能抑制地方新增工业投资。会议还提到振兴地产、加码高科技，并在需求疲软与人口下降背景下倾向渐进支持而非大规模刺激。
China’s top leadership has, for the first time, explicitly pledged to reverse a drop in investment, a core driver of growth. After a two‑day Party economic policy meeting chaired by Xi Jinping, the official readout said China would “promote stabilisation and recovery of investment” by raising central government spending, pushing key projects, and stimulating private capital. The move signals rising concern over a recent sharp slowdown in fixed‑asset investment.
Official data show the investment decline has deepened: fixed‑asset investment was down 1.7% year‑on‑year through October, after a 0.5% fall through September. With no standalone monthly series published, the year‑to‑date shift implies an abrupt roughly 11% year‑on‑year drop in October. Given investment’s long role in infrastructure, property, and advanced manufacturing, the weakening is a major macro warning.
Analysts split the causes between data and policy. Goldman Sachs estimates about 60% of the fall reflects statistical corrections to previously overstated figures, but a still‑large 40% stems from anti‑“involution” policies, the property slump, and slower infrastructure‑related fiscal spending, potentially deterring new local industrial projects. The meeting also backed real‑estate revival and high‑tech investment, while leaning toward incremental support rather than a big stimulus amid weak demand and population decline.
