即便有停战，中美贸易仍月月下滑，但总体出口在反弹：11月出货同比增长5.9%，扭转10月意外的1.1%下降，使全年对外贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元。义乌的国有运营方押注规模扩张，以32亿元购得附近66万平方米地块的开发权，计划3到4年建设，同时其跨境支付“义乌支付”在2025年前9个月处理270亿元转账，同比增长35%。
出口强劲的背后是国内需求疲弱。2025年前9个月商品房销售额为5.5万亿元，约为2020年同期的一半；1-10月固定资产投资同比下降1.7%，自7月以来形成并加速的广泛低迷。在佛山的铝材和窗框产业集群中，企业倒闭、美国订单流失与厂房租金下滑并存：11月租金为每平方米每天0.43元，低于2022年的0.62元。分析人士认为出口有助于2025年实现约5%的GDP增长，但逾1万亿美元的顺差会加剧美国以外地区的贸易摩擦。
At Yiwu International Trade City, the world’s largest wholesale market, exporters are pivoting from the U.S. to new regions. Arabic signage, plushies, drones and AI goods signal a strategy of destination diversification, with Middle Eastern buyers prominent; perfumes selling for about 30 yuan ($4.25) a bottle are a hit there. The shift comes as Donald Trump lifted effective tariffs on Chinese goods above 50%, then agreed in late October to a truce cutting the rate by 10 percentage points.
Even after the truce, China–U.S. trade has fallen month after month, but overall exports rebounded: November shipments rose 5.9% year on year after an unexpected 1.1% drop in October, pushing the annual global trade surplus past $1 trillion for the first time. Yiwu’s state operator is betting on scale, buying development rights for 660,000 square meters for 3.2 billion yuan and planning three to four years of build‑out, while its Yiwu Pay service moved 27 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, up 35%.
Behind the export strength is weak home demand. Property sales in the first nine months of 2025 were 5.5 trillion yuan, roughly half the 2020 level, and fixed‑asset investment from January to October slipped 1.7% year on year, a broad slump accelerating since July. In Foshan’s aluminum and window‑frame cluster, bankruptcies and lost U.S. orders coincide with factory rents falling to 0.43 yuan per sq. meter per day in November from 0.62 in 2022. Analysts see exports helping deliver around 5% GDP growth in 2025, but the $1tn surplus heightens trade frictions beyond Washington.
