在伊朗战争情境下，美国政府内部正在研究油价可能冲到 200 美元/桶（约 1.26 美元/公升，按1 桶=159 升）的极端情境，目的在于事前评估冲击，不是宣示预测；白宫发言人 Kush Desai 同时否认已将该水位列为正式情境。自 2 月 28 日冲突升温以来，WTI 已上涨约 30% 至 91 美元/桶（约 0.57 美元/公升），Brent 几乎上涨 40% 至 102 美元/桶（约 0.64 美元/公升）。

从历史和模型看，文章指出以通膨调整后计算，近半世纪仅在 2008 年全球金融危机前触及 200 美元/桶；Bloomberg Economics 估计，油价若维持 170 美元/桶（约 1.07 美元/公升）数个月，将推高美欧通膨并抑制经济成长。霍尔木兹海峡平时可承载全球油气出口约五分之一，该航道受阻后，已加剧通胀与能源传导压力；Christine Lagarde 指出冲突提高通胀风险，法兰克福、伦敦与日本市场已准备最早下月启动升息。

在美国，零售汽油价格已升高约 30%，抹平了特朗普先前宣称的上一年降价成果。Powell 指出目前仍太早判断油价上涨对经济全貌的影响，显示货币政策判断变得更不确定。Donald Trump 对外强调较高能源成本不必过度担忧，甚至有利美国，并预期战争结束后价格将大幅回落；但白宫的 5 日限期谈判讯号，以及 Scott Bessent、Chris Wright 先前的「长期前景仍有信心」与「200 美元/桶不太可能」观点，仍无法完全消解供给中断所带来的市场压力。

Within the Trump administration, officials are modeling an oil-price shock to $200 per barrel (about $1.26 per litre, with 1 barrel = 159 L) as part of contingency planning around the Iran war. Officials stress it is stress-testing, not a forecast. The White House, however, publicly denied that a $200 scenario was under active assessment, even as internal reporting said Treasury official Scott Bessent and others had warned of oil and gasoline volatility. Since the conflict escalated on Feb 28, WTI has risen about 30% to $91 a barrel (about $0.57 per litre), and Brent has climbed nearly 40% to around $102 a barrel (about $0.64 per litre).

Historically, by inflation-adjusted terms, oil has hit $200 a barrel only once in the last half-century, in 2008 before the global financial crisis. Bloomberg Economics estimates that oil at $170 a barrel (about $1.07 per litre) for several months would likely push up inflation and weaken growth in the US and Europe. The article also highlights shipping risk: normal exports through the Strait of Hormuz can be up to one-fifth of global oil and gas exports, and disruption there has already amplified inflation and pass-through pressure. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the conflict raised inflation risks; authorities in Frankfurt, London, and Japan are preparing for possible rate hikes as soon as next month.

In the US, retail gasoline prices are up about 30%, effectively wiping out the previous-year declines that had been presented as a major economic success. Jerome Powell said it is still too soon to judge the full economic impact of the oil surge, so monetary-policy signals remain uncertain. Trump has publicly argued that higher energy costs are not a severe concern and may even benefit the US, expecting prices to fall sharply after the war, but policy signals remain mixed: the White House’s five-day deadline to Iran and public assurances that $200 oil is unlikely by Chris Wright coexist with ongoing supply-shock pressure.