新的结构性因素在于央行：过去 4 年央行为最大买方，但在能源与国防支出大增、能源价格急升且部分国家出现汽油配给的情境下，央行开始考虑动用黄金部位以支应急需。文章指出，过去 5 年黄金累计涨幅逾 150%，使得「获利了结以填补财政缺口」在准备金管理逻辑上更具合理性。
依 World Gold Council（WGC），央行持有逾 4.3 兆美元黄金准备金，约占市场 1/5，约为先前长期占比的 2 倍；2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，中国领先增持，而此一去美元资产化亦受美国财政部 Office of Foreign Assets Control 影响：据 Brookings Institute，西方冻结（扣押）俄罗斯多达 3,300 亿美元准备金。WGC 并称莫斯科今年为最大卖方；此外，波兰国家银行（去年最大买方）与土耳其央行（可能以英格兰银行托管黄金作抵押支撑里拉）均提及动用；央行净买盘亦显著降温，WGC 估计 1 月仅净买 5 公吨，低于去年月均 27 公吨，暗示市场更可能转向「双向且较均衡」的交易结构。
Gold has fallen 15% since the Iran conflict began, undermining its safe-haven narrative and showing it can behave more like a liquid asset sold for cash in stress, as in the 2008 global financial crisis and the March 2020 Covid shock. Even after the drawdown, it remains up by more than 50% over the past year, leaving many holders with substantial gains and reinforcing the pattern that gold can act as a liquidity valve rather than a pure geopolitical hedge.
A newer dynamic is the behavior of central banks, the largest gold buyers over the past 4 years, which are beginning to consider using holdings to fund sharply higher energy and defense outlays amid surging energy prices and emerging petrol rationing in some countries. With gold up by more than 150% over the past 5 years, monetizing part of those gains to meet emergency needs can fit standard reserves-management objectives, reframing gold as a piggy bank as much as a haven.
The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates central banks hold more than $4.3 trillion in gold reserves—about 1/5 of the market, roughly double their earlier long-run share—suggesting a persistent shift. Accumulation since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has been led by China, influenced by sanctions risk after the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control helped drive freezes of up to $330 billion of Russia’s reserves (Brookings Institute), while WGC says Moscow has been the largest gold seller this year. Policy signals also point to potential sales or collateralization (e.g., the National Bank of Poland and Turkey using gold held at the Bank of England), and buying momentum has slowed sharply: WGC estimates just 5 net metric tons bought in January versus a 27-ton monthly average last year, consistent with a move toward a more balanced two-way market.