战争在伊朗本周持续第六天几乎无缓和迹象。伊朗誓言在未来几天加码报复，已对伊拉克和科威特的美军发动无人机袭击，并打击了波斯湾一艘油轮；以色列宣布对德黑兰发动第十二轮空袭，主要打击军事和情报资产。迄今伊朗境内死亡至少 1,230 人，区域其他地区又有数十人死亡。阿拉伯国家和以色列陆续拦截伊朗导弹和无人机，卡塔尔发布居家警报，土耳其也遭到其冲突后首个北约成员国袭击，NATO 成功拦截一枚弹道导弹，随后土耳其警告德黑兰避免进一步扩大战事。阿塞拜疆在其领土遭遇两次无人机袭击后提出报复，伊朗通过 Fars 否认关联；以色列对伊朗阿斯加巴德？（N/A）?（更正）对伊朗圣城德黑兰周边的打击在地理上扩大了冲突。约 12 个国家已卷入该冲突，且从 2 月 28 日美以启动行动后，战线持续扩展。

市场已将冲突拖延风险定价进资产与运输体系：布伦特原油在三天内约上涨 13%，接近 83 美元/桶（1 桶≈0.159 立方米）；黄金同步抬升；美国 10 年期国债收益率连续第四个交易日走高。自开战以来，通往中东枢纽的取消航班已超过 23,000 个，数千名乘客滞留海湾地区。以色列称伊朗弹道导弹每次齐射的数量和出击频率均有所下降，但美国和以色列仍在加大攻势。美国参议院否决众议院拟议暂停对伊朗打击的民主党动议，众议院预计随后表决；Donald Trump 重申“控制局面”并将其描述为“进展”。

在供应链层面，霍尔木兹海峡通道明显收缩，流量下滑促使沙特将数百万桶原油（约 0.16×10⁶ 立方米）以上转运至红海港口，试图维持全球供应；美国宣布若有需要将提供保险担保与海军护航，以保障油轮通过。Navy?（更正）伊朗军方指挥官 Amir Heydari 认为海峡未完全关闭，但市场和分析师预期有效恢复流通仍需数周。伊朗政治层面并未停歇：Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 逝世后新领袖指定接近临近，议会/宗教领袖会议选举继任者的准备存在延后迹象；伊朗在被问及与美国谈判时由 Mohammad Mokhber 表示“绝不信任美国、无意谈判”。以色列另爆出袭击伊朗 Qom 的最高领袖会议场所，Nour 报告造成 3 人死亡。

The war entered its sixth day with little sign of de-escalation, and Iran vowed retaliation to intensify in coming days after striking U.S. forces in Iraq and Kuwait with drones and hitting an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. Israel said it conducted its twelfth airstrike wave on Tehran, targeting military and intelligence assets; at least 1,230 people have died in Iran, with dozens more deaths elsewhere in the region. Middle Eastern states and Israel continued intercepting Iranian missiles and drones, Qatar ordered residents indoors, Turkey became the first NATO member hit since the war began, and Azerbaijan threatened to respond after two Iranian drones hit its territory. Iran denied links to the Azerbaijani strike. In total, about a dozen nations are now embroiled after the U.S.-Israel campaign began on February 28.

Financial markets reflected expectation of a prolonged conflict: Brent rose toward $83 per barrel, a roughly 13% increase over the first three days of the week, while gold gained and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose for a fourth straight day. Since fighting began, canceled flights to Middle East hubs have surpassed 23,000, leaving thousands stranded. Israel claimed fewer launches and fewer missiles per barrage from Iran, but U.S. strike momentum continued. In Washington, the Republican-controlled Senate rejected a Democratic bid to halt U.S. strikes, while the House was expected to vote similarly. Donald Trump said the U.S. was doing very well and reiterated control of the theater, while Pete Hegseth said the campaign could last three, six, or eight weeks.

Shipping stress was concentrated at the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has slumped and the Strait has remained largely shut; Saudi Arabia rerouted millions of barrels of crude oil (about 0.16 million m³ per million barrels) to a Red Sea port to sustain output. The U.S. said it would provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts if needed for safe passage. Iran’s armed forces commander Amir Heydari said the Strait was not closed, yet traders and analysts expected meaningful flow recovery only after weeks. On governance, Iran still faces succession planning after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with preparations for funeral and eventual leadership selection reportedly delayed; Iran’s Mohammad Mokhber rejected U.S. contact claims as false. Israel reported an attack on a Qom building linked to the Assembly of Experts, with Nour reporting three casualties.