2月22日，59岁的内梅西奥·鲁本“埃尔·门乔”奥塞格拉·塞万提斯在哈利斯科被墨西哥特种部队抓获，并在交火受伤后死亡；这名头目领导着墨西哥两大帮派之一，并在约二十年内建立了覆盖全国的犯罪网络。美国国务院此前为其悬赏1500万美元，而这次行动也成为总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆上任一年半后安全优先路线的高调成果。

暴力几乎立刻扩散到至少15个州，出现纵火、封路与停飞，约60人死亡，其中约一半是国家安全部队人员；到2月25日局势大体降温，哈利斯科学校复课。统计上的警讯是时间滞后风险：2024年7月“埃尔·马约”被捕后约三个月才爆发实质性内斗，说明当前平静不等于后续冲突概率下降。

长期风险来自组织结构与资源规模：CJNG由92个地方集团拼合而成，活动遍及墨西哥全部32个州，碎片化后争夺地盘的激励很高。政府已向哈利斯科增派2500名士兵，与原有7000人合计9500人，同时6月瓜达拉哈拉还将举办4场世界杯比赛，因此若凶杀率反弹，现有“温和下降”趋势可能在国际聚光灯下逆转为政治负担。

On February 22, 59-year-old Nemesio Ruben “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes was captured in Jalisco by Mexican special forces and then died from shoot-out wounds; he led one of Mexico’s two largest cartels and had built a nationwide criminal enterprise over roughly two decades. The U.S. State Department had offered a $15 million reward for his capture, and the operation became a headline win for President Claudia Sheinbaum’s security-first agenda after 1.5 years in office.

Violence spread almost immediately to at least 15 states, with arson, road blockades, and flight cancellations, killing about 60 people, roughly half of them state forces; by February 25, conditions had largely stabilized and schools in Jalisco reopened. The key statistical warning is lag risk: after “El Mayo” was detained in July 2024, major intra-cartel fighting took about three months to erupt, so early calm does not imply lower medium-term conflict odds.

The structural risk is scale plus fragmentation: CJNG is an amalgam of 92 groups operating across all 32 Mexican states, making post-leadership splintering and local turf wars highly probable. The state response has already risen to 9,500 troops in Jalisco (2,500 newly deployed plus 7,000 already present), while Guadalajara hosts four World Cup matches in June, so any homicide-rate rebound could reverse recent modest gains under global scrutiny.

Source: The killing of Mexico’s most powerful narco will please Donald Trump

Subtitle: But it risks provoking terrible violence in Mexico

Dateline: 2月 26, 2026 04:27 上午 | Mexico City